In a sense, this election will be between two incumbents. When an incumbent runs in a primary, it’s rare any real challenges pop up. Biden has a few minor opponents, both of whom are struggling to get more than a few points in the polls.

Compare that to Trump. As an “incumbent,” he should be getting 98% of the vote in his primaries. Instead, last night at the Iowa caucus, he got 51%.

His party is not behind him as much as he thinks it is. And that’s good for us. Maybe some of the people in his party who don’t support him won’t show up at the polls in November.