Robert Ariail

Examining Nate Silver’s predictions for 2020

Nate Silver (of fivethirtyeight.com) actually did a pretty good job. Keep in mind that he is not a pollster; he just takes the polls, weighs them based on the pollster’s history of accuracy, averages them with math I don’t understand, and then makes his prediction.

Trump was undercounted in all the polls by about 2%, so the predictions for Florida and North Carolina going Biden’s way were wrong, but the others were around that 2% difference.

His prediction for some of the “swing states” is on the left and the actual percentage is on the right. The two he got wrong have asterisks.

AZ: 50.7 / 49.4

FL: 50.9 / 47.8 *

GA: 50.1 / 49.5

MI: 53.5 / 50.6

MN: 53.7 / 52.6

NC: 50.5 / 48.7 *

NV: 52.3 / 50.1

PA: 52.0 / 49.9

WI: 53.7 / 49.6

These are the swing states he predicted would be in Trump’s column (and they were):

IA: 48.5 / 45.0

OH: 49.2 / 45.2

TX: 48.8 / 46.4

Trump’s evidence of voter fraud

Kim Warp

The real reason they’re fighting over the election

In case it’s not obvious, the real goal of the Republican efforts to fight the election results is to keep getting donations from their gullible cultists.

This entire presidential administration has been about making the Trump family richer, by ignoring all laws about conflicts of interest and nepotism and by moving government funds to their own personal use. No reason to think they’re going to stop doing that simply because they lost the election.

Seriously: If you go to their donations page, you can see where they are asking for money to fight the election and then, in small print at the bottom, it says that the money will mostly be used to pay down their campaign debt.

I am not making this up. The Wall Street Journal today pointed out that the “Official Election Defense Fund” explains that 60% of contributions to the fund will go toward paying off Trump’s election debt, and 40% to the operating account of the Republican National Committee. Only after a donation hits the legal limit will the remainder go toward legal expenses.” 

So why is their campaign is in debt? You’ll see that they spent a ton of campaign money on fancy hotel rooms and cars and meals for the campaign higher ups, and there’s probably more abuse we just don’t know about. It’s clear that his campaign violated the law by laundering money meant for the campaign into other places, but as long as the Attorney General works for Trump instead of the people of the United States, don’t expect much to happen.

And, of course, these lawsuits are frivolous and have no chance of success, as plenty of experts have said.

The people have spoken

Steve Sack

How we stole the election

Our plan was perfect.

We used the Deep State as usual. The Deep State is all powerful, you know, and with it we can do anything (except stop Mitch McConnell, get Hillary elected, or prevent an unqualified Supreme Court justice from getting appointed, but other than that…).

We were so clever that we even had Trump-appointed judges on our side, holding that the election was going fairly and all votes were being counted.

Of course, we didn’t want to show our hand so we made sure that we didn’t take the Senate like everyone predicted. That would be too obvious. We also lost a few House seats as well, just to throw everyone off our trail.

Our strategy also involved the mail-in ballots in certain states. We allowed the Republicans in those states (such as Pennsylvania, where I live) to write the law that prevents poll workers from counting ballots until after election day. That would give the Trump supporters false hope, since we all knew the mail-in ballots would favor Democrats as they came in later. Sneaky!

Then to further mislead everyone, we allowed poll watchers from both parties to observe the counting, and even live streamed the whole thing so anyone who wanted to observe could watch. We stole the election right under their noses while they watched every single thing we did.

We’re so devious.

But here’s the real trick we used:

We got more than five million votes than Trump. What a shock, huh? Who would have thought that the guy who lost the popular vote last time and who has never reached a 50% approval rating in polls the entire time he was President would lose?!

The race

Lalo Alcaraz

One Shift Two Shift Red Shift Blue Shift

Long before the election, those in the know discussed how the different voting patterns of each party would give us “red shifts” and “blue shifts.”

Since most of Trump’s supporters were voting in person instead of by mail, you would see a lot of his votes at first and then there would be a shift to the blue as the mail-in ballots were counted.

In states that allowed the mail-in ballots to be counted prior to election day, we saw the opposite: The first numbers coming in from states like Texas and Florida looked very favorable to Democrats, but as the same day numbers came in, it shifted to the Republicans.

NY Times map as of noon November 5th

The problem is that in some states (including my state of Pennsylvania), the law does not allow the counting of ballots until election day — so it first looked like Trump was doing great but as the mail-ins were counted that were overwhelmingly for Biden, the numbers changed greatly.

As you may have guessed, it was the Republicans here in Pennsylvania who fought against allowing the ballots to be counted early, and they’re now the ones claiming that the election is being “stolen” (without a shred of evidence to support that) as these ballots (including mine) are counted.

Don’t be fooled by the screams on the right of anti-democratic fascists who want to stop the count for no good reason other than they are losing.

Sleepy Joe

Steve Sack

Why the Electoral College has to go

With the election on everyone’s mind, I’ve been answering a lot of questions about the terrible Electoral College. So to make things easier, here I am reading the chapter from my book HOW TO ARGUE THE CONSTITUTION WITH A CONSERVATIVE explaining the concept and why we need to get rid of it (including a discussion of the Wyoming Plan).