If the polls were exactly accurate and the election were held today (August 30, 2024), Harris would win enough states to be President.

I made this map using 538’s page where the team averages out the polls based on the reliability of the pollsters (they currently says Harris has a 59% chance of winning) and then used 270 to Win‘s mapmaking.

But let’s be realistic about these numbers.

First, remember that anything can happen between now and November. You can rest assured that Putin and others will be doing everything they can to get their toady back into office, and already the Trump folks are planning to disrupt the election, kick people off the voting lists, challenge the results (but only in blue states, of course), and otherwise cheat to win.

Note as well that polls can be inaccurate and have constantly under-estimated Trump fanatics. Pollsters now claim they are taking that into account, but this is not an exact science.

See all those very light blue states? That means Harris’ poll advantage is less than 5%, and often within the poll’s margin of error. In some states (like Pennsylvania, where I live) her poll advantage is less than one percentage point. This is going to be close, people. We have to get every single vote we can.

If Trump wins, it will most likely be like last time, where we won the popular vote and he squeezed by due to the Electoral College. (Remember that absent that stupid Electoral College, Democrats would have held the White House going all the way back to Bill Clinton.)

I still predict a Harris win (for reasons I have stated here before) but we cannot afford to be overconfident.