Long before the election, those in the know discussed how the different voting patterns of each party would give us “red shifts” and “blue shifts.”
Since most of Trump’s supporters were voting in person instead of by mail, you would see a lot of his votes at first and then there would be a shift to the blue as the mail-in ballots were counted.
In states that allowed the mail-in ballots to be counted prior to election day, we saw the opposite: The first numbers coming in from states like Texas and Florida looked very favorable to Democrats, but as the same day numbers came in, it shifted to the Republicans.
NY Times map as of noon November 5th
The problem is that in some states (including my state of Pennsylvania), the law does not allow the counting of ballots until election day — so it first looked like Trump was doing great but as the mail-ins were counted that were overwhelmingly for Biden, the numbers changed greatly.
As you may have guessed, it was the Republicans here in Pennsylvania who fought against allowing the ballots to be counted early, and they’re now the ones claiming that the election is being “stolen” (without a shred of evidence to support that) as these ballots (including mine) are counted.
Don’t be fooled by the screams on the right of anti-democratic fascists who want to stop the count for no good reason other than they are losing.
With the election on everyone’s mind, I’ve been answering a lot of questions about the terrible Electoral College. So to make things easier, here I am reading the chapter from my book HOW TO ARGUE THE CONSTITUTION WITH A CONSERVATIVE explaining the concept and why we need to get rid of it (including a discussion of the Wyoming Plan).
I was a recent guest on Science Babe Yvette Ross’ blog, where we discuss the Constitution, politics, the election, cats, and other important topics. Check it out!
I have to admit that the polls look good going into this election, but you have to keep in mind that polls do not take into consideration cheating. Republicans have made their election strategy clear: They’re willing to do anything to win this election (except get the most votes).
We’ve already seen voter intimidation encouraged by the President; fake mail-in drop boxes set up to steal ballots; the closing of precincts; forcing people to drive hundreds of miles to drop off their ballots; and numerous lawsuits having the prime purpose of making sure the will of the people is not heard.
The only way to counter all this is with a massive vote that overwhelms all the tricks they are using.
But to the polls: Some people are saying “Yeah, Biden is ahead, but so was Hillary at this time.” That’s only true in certain places. Overall, Biden has been ahead of Trump consistently, which is unusual in a Presidential campaign. Here, look at this (from Real Clear Politics):
Trump has never hit a 50% approval rating as President. His highest scores are still lower than Obama’s lowest scores. His following is limited, and it’s even less this time. Some of those who supported him last time are abandoning him now, and he hasn’t appealed to any new voters.
But what about four years ago when we all said the same thing? Here’s how it looked then:
So what happened? Some of it was polling itself — many people didn’t want to admit they were voting for the racist incompetent idiot and wouldn’t tell the pollsters. Some of it was us being so confident we didn’t all get out and vote. Some of it was our terrible Electoral College (because, after all, the polls showed her ahead by 3% and she did get 3% more than Trump, just not in the right states). And some was the fact that Clinton, unlike Biden, started out with negative ratings and never really appealed to many voters.
But this time we’re ready and voting — but so are the Trump people. And they’re cheating. So don’t get complacent and don’t get comfortable. Vote!
(According to fivethirtyeight.com, this is what the Electoral College results would be if the election was held today and all the polls were completely accurate:)
I have to admit, it amuses me that the right wing has suddenly developed the one thing that they previously despised: empathy.
It’s just fascinating. When Trump sneered at Hillary’s pneumonia, they cheered. When Trump memorably lampooned a journalist who had a physical handicap, they roared with laughter. When Trump attacked the mourning parents of a fallen Gold Star warrior, they nodded in agreement.
But suddenly their noble leader is downed with Coronavirus, and their hackles are up. Granted, left wingers shouldn’t be chortling in delight over the fact that he’s down with the virus he dismissed as a Democratic hoax. They shouldn’t wish him dead. However, making the comment that this was inevitable–that when you ignore the advice of scientists, downplay the disease’s viciousness and have both yourself and your minions ignore the steps you should take to avoid contracting it–that’s a valid point to make. Commenting on the fact that Trump basically brought this on himself is a legitimate observation. Yet suddenly the right wing, who delighted in their leader’s bullying tactics, have melted as snowflakes typically do.
Joe Biden has wished Trump well. Does anyone think that if the situation were reversed, Trump would do likewise? Of course not. If Biden were downed with Covid, Trump would be the very first out the gate to deride him and hold him up as proof that scientists don’t know what they’re talking about. “So much for his masks!” he would declare. It would be held up as proof that Biden is weak, run down, susceptible to a disease that knew better than to try and tangle with Trump. Furthermore his campaign would produce “Biden is sick” ads that would run 24/7.
Currently the Biden campaign has pulled all its Trump attack ads. If Biden were down with it, Trump’s campaign would step up the attack ads. Indeed, they’re currently continuing with their attack ads even though Biden has backburnered his. And yet still the butt-hurt right wing howls over the mistreatment and lack of sympathy they’re receiving from the left. Where is the empathy that they, who have never extended it, are now not receiving in turn? They have repeatedly expressed their contempt for even the concept of the moral high ground; so why isn’t the left sticking to that now?
Why don’t we show them how people in a civilized society should behave, so that they can view it as a sign of weakness and continue to come up with plans to “own the libs” in their deeds and actions?
Even better: they continue to try and blame things on Biden. If Biden were a gentleman, declared one pundit, he would postpone the election. Even though no election has been postponed in the history of the country. Even though Biden has as much power to postpone an election as I do. Even though millions have already voted. Even though if Biden were ill instead, Trump would laugh at the idea. Instead we’re getting the sentiment of, “How unsympathetic to an illness can those lousy Democrats be?”
Exactly this unsympathetic: For months we’ve been worried about an October surprise. Well, we got it. And the surprise is, it isn’t remotely surprising. It was inevitable.
The right wing wants sympathy? Let’s give them as much sympathy as Trump gave John McCain, dying of brain cancer. Or Herman Cain, dying of misplaced faith. It’s one of the oldest sayings in the book, right wing: What goes around comes around.
Peter David is a writer whose novels include many of his own stories as well as novels in the world of Star Trek and Babylon 5 (and others). Besides novels, Peter has written comic books (Incredible Hulk, Aquaman, Supergirl), television shows (Babylon 5, Space Cases, Ben 10), short stories, blogs, and more. Check out his web page and his wikipedia page and prepare to be overwhelmed.
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