I’m one of those unusual straight guys who doesn’t know who won the Super Bowl, but can tell you what won Best Picture for the past thirty years.

Below are my predictions for tonight’s show.  This is not my list of what I want to win, but merely what I think will win.  Oscar loves serious movies about important topics and movies about movies.  (That’s why “Argo” and “The Artist” won the past two years).  “12 Years a Slave” has that Oscar seriousness the voters like.  Even if it’s not the Best Picture Of The Year, sometimes Oscar likes to pat itself on the back for tacking serious issues, which is why it is rare that films like “The Return of the King” win.  (And why “The Hobbit” was not nominated for best makeup this year.)

Feel free to post your predictions below and we’ll compare tomorrow.

Best Picture:  12 Years a Slave

Best Director:  Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)

Best Actor:  Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

Best Actress:  Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)

Best Supporting Actor:  Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyongo (12 Years a Slave)

Best Original Screenplay:  American Hustle

Best Adapted Screenplay:  12 Years a Slave

Best Animated Feature:  Frozen

Best Foreign Film:  The Great Beauty

Best Production Design:  The Great Gatsby

Best Cinematography:  Gravity

Best Documentary Feature:  20 Feet from Stardom

Best Costume Design:  The Great Gatsby

Best Editing:  Gravity

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:  Dallas Buyers Club

Best Score:  Gravity

Best Sound Mixing:  Gravity

Best Sound Editing:  Gravity

Best Song:  Let it Go (Frozen)

Best Visual Effects:  Gravity

Best Animated Short:  Get a Horse!

Best Documentary Short:  The Lady in Number 6

Best Live Action Short:  The Voorman Problem

And now, my updated list of the films that won Best Picture and my choice of what should have won.  This is an entirely subjective list, although I did consider Oscar worthiness.  For instance, while “Monty Python and the Holy Grail” may be one of my favorite films, even I don’t think it deserved an Oscar.

Admittedly, I have not seen every single film on this list.  Sometimes I really don’t need to — I don’t have to see “The Greatest Show on Earth” to know that “Singin’ in the Rain” is better.  Just about every critic in the world would agree on that.

		What Won	What Should Have Won
	1928	Wings	The Circus
	1929	Broadway Melody	Steamboat Bill, Jr.
	1930	All Quiet on the Western Front	All Quiet on the Western Front
	1931	Cimarron	City Lights
	1932	Grand Hotel	Scarface
	1933	Calvacade	King Kong
	1934	It Happened One Night	It Happened One Night
	1935	Mutiny on the Bounty	Mutiny on the Bounty
	1936	The Great Ziegfeld	Modern Times
	1937	The Life of Emile Zola	Snow White & The Seven Dwarfs
	1938	You Can’t Take it With You	The Adventures of Robin Hood
	1939	Gone With the Wind	The Wizard of Oz
	1940	Rebecca	The Grapes of Wrath
	1941	How Green Was My Valley	Citizen Kane
	1942	Mrs. Miniver	Sullivan’s Travels
	1943	Casablanca	Casablanca
	1944	Going My Way	Double Indemnity
	1945	The Lost Weekend	Spellbound
	1946	The Best Years of Our Lives	It’s a Wonderful Life
	1947	Gentleman’s Agreement	Monsieur Verdoux
	1948	Hamlet	The Treasure of the Sierra Madre
	1949	All the King’s Men	All the King’s Men
	1950	All About Eve	Sunset Boulevard
	1951	An American in Paris	An American in Paris
	1952	The Greatest Show on Earth	Singin’ in the Rain
	1953	From Here to Eternity	From Here to Eternity
	1954	On the Waterfront	Rear Window
	1955	Marty	Mister Roberts
	1956	Around the World in 80 Days	The Searchers
	1957	The Bridge on the River Kwai	Witness for the Prosecution
	1958	Gigi	Touch of Evil
	1959	Ben-Hur	Some Like it Hot
	1960	The Apartment	Psycho
	1961	West Side Story	Judgment at Nuremberg
	1962	Lawrence of Arabia	Lawrence of Arabia
	1963	Tom Jones	Tom Jones
	1964	My Fair Lady	Dr. Strangelove
	1965	The Sound of Music	The Sound of Music
	1966	A Man for All Seasons	A Man for All Seasons
	1967	In The Heat of the Night	Bonnie and Clyde
	1968	Oliver	2001: A Space Odyssey
	1969	Midnight Cowboy	Butch Cassidy & The Sundance Kid
	1970	Patton	M*A*S*H
	1971	The French Connection	A Clockwork Orange
	1972	The Godfather	The Godfather
	1973	The Sting	American Graffiti
	1974	The Godfather Part 2	The Godfather Part 2
	1975	One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest	One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest
	1976	Rocky	Taxi Driver
	1977	Annie Hall	Annie Hall
	1978	The Deer Hunter	The Deer Hunter
	1979	Kramer verses Kramer	Apocalypse Now
	1980	Ordinary People	The Empire Strikes Back
	1981	Chariots of Fire	Raiders of the Lost Ark
	1982	Gandhi	ET
	1983	Terms of Endearment	The Right Stuff
	1984	Amadeus	Amadeus
	1985	Out of Africa	Brazil
	1986	Platoon	Platoon
	1987	The Last Emperor	Empire of the Sun
	1988	Rain Man	Rain Man
	1989	Driving Miss Daisy	Do The Right Thing
	1990	Dances with Wolves	Goodfellas
	1991	The Silence of the Lambs	The Silence of the Lambs
	1992	Unforgiven	Malcolm X
	1993	Schindler’s List	Schindler’s List
	1994	Forrest Gump	Pulp Fiction
	1995	Braveheart	The American President
	1996	The English Patient	Fargo
	1997	Titanic	Amistad
	1998	Shakespeare in Love	Saving Private Ryan
	1999	American Beauty	American Beauty
	2000	Gladiator	Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon
	2001	A Beautiful Mind	The Fellowship of the Ring
	2002	Chicago	The Two Towers
	2003	The Return of the King	The Return of the King
	2004	Million Dollar Baby	Kill Bill 2
	2005	Crash	Munich
	2006	The Departed	The Departed
	2007	No Country for Old Men	No Country For Old Men
	2008	Slumdog Millionaire	The Dark Knight
	2009	The Hurt Locker	Inglorius Basterds
	2010	The King’s Speech	The Social Network
	2011	The Artist	Hugo
	2012	Argo	Lincoln