The GOP only won the House of Representatives in 2012 because of gerrymandering — more people voted for Democrats overall but because of the way districts are drawn, the majority didn’t win.

Thanks to the Shutdown, which most Americans correctly attribute to Republicans, there are enough Republicans in jeopardy of losing their seats that we could see Speaker Nancy Pelosi in 2016.

Of course, this poll is of the “If the election were held today, who would you vote for” variety, placing the incumbent against a nameless opponent. These are tremendously unreliable because (a) anything can happen within a year; and (b) people compare their current representative with an ideal opponent of the other party, and that’s usually not what happens.

Still, this poll is important because it emphasizes what many of us have been saying: This shutdown is hurting Republicans. They are so much in a bubble that they do not see this, but the numbers don’t lie.