Donald Trump

by

Iowa Caucus Predictions

Both Trump and Hillary will win the caucus for their parties, but not at the percentage that the polls show. Here’s why:

Caucuses are not like primaries. For a primary, you show up, vote, and leave. You could do it in a few minutes if the lines aren’t long. For a caucus, you have to show up on time in your local area and be there most of the night. Speeches are given and debates are held and if a candidate doesn’t get enough votes, then a second vote is held and so on. It’s democracy on a most basic scale.

While Iowans take it very seriously (since no one cares about Iowa except ovote_ballot_boxnce every four years), you still have the very real situation where only the most political and enthusiastic supporters even attend. And even then, it varies from place to place. A rural site where 20 farmers show up can have as much of an impact as an inner-city site where 100 students show up.

And all this hurts both Trump and Hillary.

Trump gets people to come to a rally to see the celebrity and listen to him spout his hatred. But many of his supporters are people who never vote — they’re not your normal political folks. I’m willing to bet that a large chunk of them will find something else more interesting to do that night.

On the Democratic side, you have the very enthusiastic Bernie supporters who will come out to the caucus meetings. They will give Bernie a much better showing than expected but it still won’t be enough to counter Hillary (who, despite a media attempt to turn this into a horse race, is pretty comfortably ahead of Bernie in all state polls except for New Hampshire, located next door to his home state of Vermont).

I’m not saying Hillary will run away with Iowa — it will be close, and the closer it is, the better for Bernie. He may even win the caucus, which could give him the momentum he needs to even the polling in other states. That’s how Obama did it when he was behind Hillary by about the same amount. Obama had the advantage though of being a great speaker and looking like a President, something you should never discount.

In the long run, Iowa is important only to show how good each candidate’s ground plan is. It in no way predicts the ultimate winner.  Just ask Presidents Mike Huckabee, Tom Harkin, and Richard Gephardt.

But then again, who really knows? Trying to predict the caucus is next to impossible. Anything can happen. My prediction is just a guess.  After all, in 2008, everyone was predicting Hillary to win and she came in third, behind Obama and Edwards.

 

by

I can’t even

It’s 2015.

And the leading candidates for the Republican nomination for President:

a. Have no political experience whatsoever (remember when they claimed Senator Obama wasn’t qualified for President because he had only been a “community organizer”?)trump

b. Are encouraging the kind of racism we thought all major politicians had run from since the 1960s

c. Are honestly claiming that perhaps we should make American Muslims have special IDs (perhaps maybe even a tattoo on their forearm?)

d. Proudly proclaim their hatred of science and spout out lies about everything from the economy to foreign policy when such lies are easily refuted

I mean, every time I thought that party could not stoop lower, I get surprised. It’s showing us the worst of America — the ugly, racist, stupid rich American that is the cliche of Americans in the rest of the world.  And the Republicans are embracing it.

A week or so ago, I wrote about how it is important for those with integrity to call out those in their group who are not — how good lawyers need to weed out the bad ones, how good cops have to not cover up the excesses of the bad cops, how good Muslims must speak out against the evil ones.

And the same is true of Republicans. But I don’t see it. Where are the Republican leaders distancing themselves from the terrible things Trump is saying?

I have friends who used to be Republicans who now have left the party because of crap like this. But maybe they should instead be staying and fighting, and speaking out against the GOP leadership that allows and encourages this.

Anyway, it’s depressing. It’s why I haven’t posted anything in a while. I can’t make fun of something so over-the-top it looks like a satire already, and even though part of me is saying “Good, this means they’re going to lose in 2016” another part of me grieves for the loss of responsible politics.

by

I was wrong about Republicans

I predicted a while ago that the GOP would rally around one of the sane candidates, aware that they would have no chance with the crazies who want to run.  I predicted Scott Walker, and maybe Jeb Bush.

Guess I was wrong. The GOP has become crazier and stupider than even I had imagined.moran-668x501

Scott Walker and Jeb Bush are doing terribly in the polls and Walker is about to announce that he is dropping out.

And the leading candidates among the Republicans left are the three least qualified of the bunch, not one of which has ever held an elective office.

There’s Donald Trump. His claim to fame is that he inherited money which he then used to get really rich while declaring bankruptcy a bunch of times. He spouts off hateful, racist, and sexist comments which his followers love because they say he’s “telling the truth.”  I have an uncle exactly like that, but he’s not rich (although he has never declared bankruptcy). I have yet to understand why Trump is more qualified than my uncle.

Doctor Ben Carson also thinks it’s a perfect step to go from running a medical practice to managing the biggest organization in the history of the world. He hasn’t quite explained how he would be more qualified than any other random doctor you could find, but somehow his followers are thrilled with the hateful and downright stupid things he says, so he’s doing just fine.

Closing in fast is Carly Fiorino. She couldn’t get elected in her home state, and she got fired as CEO of Hewlitt-Packard after she ran it into the ground, so naturally she decided that made her eligible for the most important managerial job in the world. She’s a bald-face liar who makes up crap about Planned Parenthood that even Fox News calls her out on.

These are the front-runners, representing the worst parts of our society.

And that’s the key — somehow we have all underestimated the racism, sexism, homophobia, and downright evil of a large section of the Republican base.

It even surprises the Republicans.

At a recent rally, one speaker spoke about how wrong it was for liberals to mislabel the Tea Party. “When many people think of the tea party,” he said, they assume it is composed of “racist, homophobe, xenophobe, gun-toting radicals.” The room broke into applause, cheering that label.  “Didn’t expect that,” the speaker said.

But that’s exactly who these people are. They’re happy to be racists, as they fly their Confederate flags and whine about the black man in the White House. They love being sexist as they scream about whores who want birth control from Planned Parenthood. They cheer on people who are trying to take rights away from gay couples. They hate all Muslims and Mexicans and anyone who isn’t male, white, and Christian. And they rant against “intellectuals” who want to use their “knowledge” to inform them about climate change and evolution.

They’re proud of being wrong and stupid.

But even I didn’t think there were that many of them.  I was wrong.

This is why many of my conservative friends refuse to call themselves Republicans any more. Let’s just hope the Republican party destroys itself so something better can replace it.

by

Obama’s Right: Anti-Immigration is Anti-American

by guest blogger Steve Vaughan

President Obama hit Republican upside the head with the unAmerican stick yesterday.

They certainly deserved it.

“This whole anti-immigrant sentiment that’s out there in our politics right now is contrary to who we are. Because unless you are a Native American, your family came from someplace else,” Obama said. “Don’t pretend that somehow 100 years ago the immigration process was all smooth and strict. That’s not how it worked.” The grandparents and great-grandparents of politicians taking a hard line on immigration, he said, were also “somehow considered unworthy or uneducated or unwashed.”

“When I hear folks talking as if somehow these kids are different from my kids or less worthy in the eyes of God, that somehow they are less worthy of our respect and consideration and care, I think that’s un-American,” Obama said.

He’s right.obama-immigration

Nativism is unAmerican.

There have always been nativist fringers…but that’s what they are, the fringe.

Before Hispanics and Asians, their targets were the Irish, the Italians, the Jews.

Nativism is a sucker bet in American politics. You could ask Patrick Buchanan.

The forces of reaction always lose here, because this is a country founded not on common blood lines or common cultural ties but on a shared commitment to an optimistic vision of the future that sees more freedom for more people as the inevitable path forward.

The party of pessimism doesn’t win in the U.S.

When I heard Donald Trump arguing to “Make America Great Again,” my first thought is “America is already great.” And it’s greater now than it was 10 years ago or 50 years ago or 100 years ago. Because the American Dream is within reach of more people.

We’re not perfect. We haven’t achieved “justice for all.” But the strength of America, the real exceptionalism of America is that we keep trying and getting closer. They say that “the arc of history bends towards justice.” That’s truer here than it anywhere else, despite those who want go back rather than forward and would like to strip America of everything that makes it exceptional in the name of nativism.

Steve Vaughan is a reporter and writer residing in Richmond, Virginia. He holds a degree in Political Science from VCU and a masters in Wise Ass from the School of Life.

by

The Bernie Trump Factor

Back when the Tea Party began, I was thrilled. It was around the same time as Occupy Wall Street began, and at their roots, both groups wanted the same thing: Stop letting the Big Banks and Big Business do anything they want! No bailouts for businesses that screwed over the average guy! Let’s give government back to the people!sanders and trump

Finally! Consensus! Something might actually get done!

We all know how well that worked out. The Tea Party got co-opted by every right-wing issue out there (gun rights, abortion, religious extremism), none of which had anything to do with the real issue for which the Tea Party was formed. And the Occupy Wall Street became this generation’s hippie fest, with drumming and tie-dye and demands that we stop eating animals.

It’s almost as if the rich bankers and corporations that actually run this country had planned it that way. Hmmm.

But the underlying anger hasn’t gone away, and it manifests itself now in the “Bernie Trump Factor.”

When you speak to supporters of both Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump, they say a lot of the same things about how terrible it is that government can be bought by the highest bidder. Both discuss how they “can’t be bought”.

Supporters for both exclaim, “He tells the truth!” — because neither Trump nor Sanders take public opinion polls or surveys to decide what their position on the issues should be.

And this rebellion on both sides is a good thing. It is indeed time that something is done about our country’s descent into oligarchy.

Of course, that’s about all these two have in common — on every other issue, they’re polar opposites. But the Bernie Trump Factor is the reason you have people on the left and people on the right jumping for joy for the outsider, the guy no one expected to do well.

We’re mad as hell and we’re not going to take it any more.

by

Presidential Polling This Early is Meaningless

We have 16 months until the Presidential election, but that won’t stop the pundits from making absolutely ridiculous predictions based on polling numbers.

“Donald Trump is ahead in the polls!” they say. Yeah, but to beat 14 other people in a poll, you only need to get what, 7% of the vote? Trump is ahead among Republicans only and even then in a small amount, and I’d be willing to bet that a lot of the support for Trump is because of name recognition. You think the average voter out there knows who Scott Walker is?

Remember 2012?  As the primary season approached, Romney was the clear front runner in the Republican polls. Then suddenly it was Gingrich, who famously declared that the race was over and he was the winner. That lasted about a week and then Herman Cain was the guy ahead. Then it was Santorum for a short period before moving back to Romney again. All that happened within a few months from November through February or so, and all of those polls only had meaning to people who needed something to talk about in order to fill the 24 hour news cycle.

So far, not one of the Republican candidates comes anywhere close to beating Hillary Clinton in the polls — in fact, Trump does the worst (out of the main candidates). There’s a reason Democrats are cheering on his campaign.

But even so, that polling is just as meaningless. Anything can happen between now and election day. At this point back in 2008, Hillary was way ahead in the polls against this new guy called Barack Obama …

by

Homer Simpson meets Donald Trump

Two of America’s greatest cartoon characters together for the first time!

The Simpsons writers wasted no time in making fun of Donald Trump’s candidacy when Homer is one of the lucky stiffs paid $50 to cheer on Trump’s announcement – but gets captured by Trump’s hair.

So it’s cartoon Saturday everyone. You gotta see this!