We have 16 months until the Presidential election, but that won’t stop the pundits from making absolutely ridiculous predictions based on polling numbers.
“Donald Trump is ahead in the polls!” they say. Yeah, but to beat 14 other people in a poll, you only need to get what, 7% of the vote? Trump is ahead among Republicans only and even then in a small amount, and I’d be willing to bet that a lot of the support for Trump is because of name recognition. You think the average voter out there knows who Scott Walker is?
Remember 2012? As the primary season approached, Romney was the clear front runner in the Republican polls. Then suddenly it was Gingrich, who famously declared that the race was over and he was the winner. That lasted about a week and then Herman Cain was the guy ahead. Then it was Santorum for a short period before moving back to Romney again. All that happened within a few months from November through February or so, and all of those polls only had meaning to people who needed something to talk about in order to fill the 24 hour news cycle.
So far, not one of the Republican candidates comes anywhere close to beating Hillary Clinton in the polls — in fact, Trump does the worst (out of the main candidates). There’s a reason Democrats are cheering on his campaign.
But even so, that polling is just as meaningless. Anything can happen between now and election day. At this point back in 2008, Hillary was way ahead in the polls against this new guy called Barack Obama …