Kamala Harris

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Why I expect a blue wave

Everyone is nervous; the election seems so close. What are we going to do?

Well, I’m going to out on a limb and predict a blue wave. If I’m right, I get to brag about what a great Political Scientist I am and if I am wrong, I will act like every other person who makes wrong predictions about the election and pretend I never said this. (wink wink)

I have posted before about why I expect Harris to win, but let me add to that list and explain in a bit more detail. Here are my reasons:

Harris is more popular than Biden. I mean, c’mon, man (as Biden would say). Biden won handily over Trump and Trump’s support has not grown in four years. Oh sure, his cultists will absolutely come out for him, but there’s a finite amount of them. (More on this below.) Here, look at how Biden did four years ago. You think Harris is going to do worse? (She may also pick up North Carolina, which is very close.)

Also, let’s not forget that the vast majority of people who died of COVID in 2020 and beyond were Trump supporters who refused to get vaccinated or wear a mask. There just aren’t as many of them now as there were then. (And many of Trump’s supporters, like Fox viewers, are over 70 and, well, there are not a lot of young people replacing them as they die off.)

Yeah, the polls are close in some of these states, but they have constantly shown Harris ahead. If the polls went back and forth between the two, there may be more room to worry but here in Pennsylvania (for example), Harris has kept her lead pretty constantly.

 We can lose Georgia, Arizona and Nevada and still win.

Trump’s support isn’t as good as it seems. The man lost the popular vote the first time he ran, never even reached a 50% approval rating his entire time as President (unlike every other person who has been President), and lost his second election by an even larger amount. A majority of Americans don’t want him.

And a large percentage of Republicans don’t want him this time, either. As a semi-incumbent, he should have gotten the numbers that Biden got in the primaries, but instead, quite often, he was lucky to get more than 50% of the registered Republicans voting for him. Many old-school Republicans (the kind who aren’t part of the Trump cult) can’t stand him, see the harm he will cause, and while they may not vote for Harris, they aren’t going to vote for Trump, either. They’ll probably just stay home. Hell, the vast majority of people who worked for Trump in the White House are out campaigning for Harris.

Harris has enthusiasm. People are excited about her campaign in a way they never were about Biden. Plus, historically, “hope” and “joy” and “optimism” beats “anger” and “fear.” Polling just opened in Georgia and it has already broken records for the number of people voting. Here in Pennsylvania, early voting shows that Democrats are voting more than Republicans in record numbers, and the number of women voting is even higher than in 2020.

Her poll numbers among the young are excellent and way beyond Trump’s. Harris is energizing younger voters in a way Biden couldn’t, and these voters don’t answer polls so they’re not always counted. Their presence, along with people who want to vote for the first woman President, may make all the difference. (Keep in mind many Republican women won’t tell others that they’re voting for her, but in the privacy of the voting booth…)

Trump chose a terrible Vice President. Trump needed to win back those Republicans mentioned above who don’t like him, but instead, he got a guy who is even more extreme and who has a lot of former baggage, not the least of which is being anti-Trump in the past, calling him the “Republican Hitler.” He was right, of course, but that won’t help get more independent voters. There are only so many Trump cultists and the nomination of Vance was what the cultist wanted but it won’t attract others or widen his appeal beyond the cultists.

The Republican party doesn’t have a lot of money. People just aren’t contributing to them in the same way they are for the Democrats. There are stories all over the states where the local parties are going broke. Meanwhile, Harris has literally raised a billion dollars for her campaign, mostly from small donations. Money means ads, workers, mailings, and many other campaign expenses. It’s tremendously important.

Trump has taken over the party. The head of the party is now Eric Trump’s wife. You remember Eric, who took money meant for a children’s cancer charity? Do you know where that money is going? If you do, tell Republicans, because many are worried that it is all going to Trump’s pockets. It certainly isn’t being shared with other candidates (unlike what Harris is doing, to make sure we can win the House and Senate as well). It’s all about Trump, after all.

Moreso, these people have no real experience in running a campaign, and they fired all those who do. The campaign is doing stupid things, like having rallies in blue states that Trump will never win, and insulting the very places he is visiting in red states. (It’s actually fun to watch how incompetent they are.)

Trump’s legal worries may influence the undecided. The Trump cultists will never change, and as Trump once said, he can shoot someone on 5th Avenue and still have their support. It’s difficult to imagine how anyone can be undecided in this election, but apparently there are a lot of clueless folks out there who have no problem voting for a lying, cheating, raping idiot who wants to be a dictator, but perhaps the more Trump spends time in court, the more these undecideds may think that maybe they don’t want a criminal as President.

Trump is old. Hey, if they could spend all their time talking about how old Biden is, we can turn it around on them now and point out that he is the oldest person ever to run for President. He’s showing more and more dementia as he campaigns, he’s refused to do debates (even on Fox!) and his rallies have people leaving as he just stands there and rambles nonsense. There’s no way that will help him.

Everyone hates Project 2025. Republicans can’t run away from it. The more people learn about it, the more they hate it. Democrats are going to constantly remind everyone of what it is and how it is essentially the GOP Platform.

And, let’s face it, there are still some reasonable Republicans and moderates out there who may come out to vote because while they don’t agree with Democratic policies, they don’t want someone in there who has vowed to be a “dictator on day one.” Some patriots will put the country’s needs over the party’s.

Democrats have done better than expected in recent elections. This may be the most important indicator and why I am making this prediction. We’ve managed to win quite a few special elections over the past few years, and in those that we didn’t win (in very red areas) we did much better than expected and much better than the polls predicted. Some of that is because we’re angry, and that gets people to the polls.

And we’re tremendously angry about abortion rights. In red states where this was on the ballot, pundits were shocked to see that even conservative voters voted to keep abortion legal. Many states have the issue on the ballots in November, which should bring more Democrats out to vote to protect this right (and then they’ll vote for the Democrats running as well).

There are more of us than there are of them. Democrats have won the popular vote in every single election except one since Bill Clinton, and the only reason Republicans got into office was because of the electoral college. We can overcome that by showing up in huge numbers in the swing states where our votes are tremendously important, like we did when Obama was elected. A huge turnout will guarantee our victory.

If we lose, it will be because we stayed at home and didn’t vote, or wasted our vote on a third party candidate. And then we can scream and shout all we want as our country moves toward a Putin-friendly dictatorship, but it won’t do any good because it will be our fault.

And now, a caveat: The GOP knows all this, so they are using their secret weapon: cheating. They’ll do everything they can to make it harder for anyone to vote; they’ll use the judges they’ve appointed to throw out ballots whenever possible; they’ll lie in campaign ads and use connections in Russia and China whose goal it is to dismantle American power; and otherwise claim to have won if they lose despite all evidence to the contrary (just like they did last time).

The advantage we have this time, however, is that we have the Presidency, the Department of Justice, and are ready for what they plan. Lawsuits are already filed in some cases and some have been successful (such as the one in Georgia which stopped the Republicans from claiming that the people who man the voting booths have the right to refuse to certify the vote if they feel like it).

So there’s my prediction and the reasons for it. Let’s all hope I’m right.

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Why Harris will win

Back in March, I posted an article where I explained why I thought Biden would win. Many of the same reasons apply, but now that Harris is the candidate (as I had hoped), I can add a few more.

Trump’s support isn’t as good as it seems. The man lost the popular vote the first time he ran, never even reached a 50% approval rating his entire time as President (unlike every other person who has been President), and lost his second election by an even larger amount. A majority of Americans don’t want him.

And a large percentage of Republicans don’t want him this time, either. As a semi-incumbent, he should have gotten the numbers that Biden got in the primaries, but instead, quite often, he was lucky to get more than 50% of the registered Republicans voting for him. Many old-school Republicans (the kind who aren’t part of the Trump cult) can’t stand him, see the harm he will cause, and while they may not vote for Harris, they aren’t going to vote for Trump, either. They’ll probably just stay home.

Trump chose a terrible Vice President. Trump needed to win back those Republicans mentioned above who don’t like him, but instead, he got a guy who is even more extreme and worse, and who has a lot of former baggage, not the least of which is being anti-Trump in the past, calling him the “Republican Hitler.” He was right, of course, but that won’t help get more independent voters. There are only so many Trump cultists and the nomination of Vance was what the cultist wanted but it won’t attract others.

The Republican party doesn’t have a lot of money. People just aren’t contributing to them in the same way they are for the Democrats. There are stories all over the states where the local parties are going broke. Meanwhile, since Harris was announced as the candidate, Democratic money has been pouring in. Money means ads, workers, mailings, and many other campaign expenses. It’s tremendously important.

Trump has taken over the party. The head of the party is now Eric Trump’s wife. You remember Eric, who took money meant for a children’s cancer charity? Well, you can bet that any money the party raises isn’t going to go to the campaign. It’s going to go to Trump (and probably his legal fees, assuming he pays them).

Moreso, these people have no real experience in running a campaign, and they fired all those who do.

Trump’s legal worries may influence the undecided. The Trump cultists will never change, and as Trump once said, he can shoot someone on 5th Avenue and still have their support. It’s difficult to imagine how anyone can be undecided in this election, but apparently there are a lot of clueless folks out there who have no problem voting for a lying, cheating, raping idiot who wants to be a dictator, but perhaps the more Trump spends time in court, the more these undecideds may think that maybe they don’t want a criminal as President.

Trump is old. Hey, if they could spend all their time talking about how old Biden is, we can turn it around on them now and point out that he is the oldest person ever to run for President.

Everyone hates Project 2025. Republicans can’t run away from it. The more people learn about it, the more they hate it. Democrats are going to constantly remind everyone of what it is and how it is essentially the GOP Platform.

Democrats have done better than expected in recent elections. We’ve managed to win quite a few special elections and in those that we didn’t win (in very red areas) we did much better than expected and much better than the polls predicted. Some of that is because we’re angry and pissed, and that gets people to the polls.

And we’re tremendously angry about abortion rights. In red states where this was on the ballot, pundits were shocked to see that even conservative voters voted to keep abortion legal. Many states are putting the issue on the ballots in November, which hopefully will bring more Democrats out to vote to protect this right (and then they’ll vote for the Democrats running as well.)

And, let’s face it, there are still some reasonable Republicans and moderates out there who may come out to vote because while they don’t agree with Democratic policies, they don’t want someone in there who has vowed to be a “dictator on day one.” Some patriots will put the country’s needs over the party’s.

Harris is exciting younger and newer voters. Her poll numbers among the young are excellent and way beyond Trump’s. Harris is energizing younger voters in a way Biden couldn’t, and these voters don’t answer polls so they’re not always counted. (Polls still rely heavily on landline phones — which may also be why we have done better than expected in recent elections). Their presence along with people who want to vote for the first woman President may make all the difference. (Keep in mind many Republican women won’t tell others that they’re voting for her, but in the privacy of the voting booth…)

All we have to do is hold the states we won last time. All over the country, purple states are becoming bluer all the time. It’s not that hard. We can lose Georgia, Arizona and Nevada and still win. I am hoping Harris will chose Governor Shapiro as her running mate, as that should help secure Pennsylvania, a state we have to win. (Seriously, without purple Pennsylvania, there’s no way a Democrat can win.)

There are more of us than there are of them. Democrats have won the popular vote in every single election except one since Bill Clinton, and the only reason Republicans got into office was because of the electoral college. We can overcome that by showing up in huge numbers in the swing states where our votes are tremendously important, like we did when Obama was elected. A huge turnout will guarantee our victory.

If we lose, it will be because we stayed at home and didn’t vote, or wasted our vote on a third party candidate. And then we can scream and shout all we want as our country moves toward a Putin-friendly dictatorship, but it won’t do any good because it will be our fault.

And now, a caveat: The GOP knows all this, so they plan to use their secret weapon: cheating. They’ll do everything they can to make it harder for anyone to vote; they’ll use the judges they’ve appointed to throw out ballots whenever possible; they’ll lie in campaign ads and use connections in Russia and China whose goal it is to dismantle American power; and otherwise claim to have won if they lose despite all evidence to the contrary (just like they did last time).

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Harris and the “But she’s a cop” argument

As a lawyer who works with DAs and AGs every day, allow me to say: they’re not all bad. Some are even liberal Democrats who want to see justice done, help victims, and stand up to bad cops.

And not all cops are bad, either. I know, I work with them every day, too.

So I’m really sick of my fellow liberals saying “You can’t support Harris for VP — she’s a cop!”

To place them all in the “bad” category is like when we defense attorneys try running for office and people say “You can’t vote for them. They’re on the side of criminals!”

No, we’re on the side of justice, and that can be fought by both DAs and defense.

I personally want more Democrats to run for DA and AG. But when my fellow Democrats consider that a disqualifying factor, then I guess I won’t expect a lot of reform coming. (If you want to make change, you have to be in the room where it happens.)

So let’s see how terrible this cop was in California when she was a DA and later an AG.  Hmmm.  Well, she refused to enforce the state’s death penalty. She took felony marijuana arrests and reduced them to misdemeanors and refused to even prosecute the misdemeanor marijuana arrests. She set up a hate crimes unit to help LGBTQ victims and refused to defend California’s Proposition 8 that prohibited gay marriage. She stopped prosecuting young prostitutes, realizing that they were the victims, and worked to provide them with support to get out of their situation.

And when she ran for AG, the police union refused to support her.

So much for “but she’s a cop.”

 

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Vote for who you want, not for who you think will win

I have given up on predicting what people want. The experts all said we’d never elect a black man and we got two terms of Obama. The experts all said we’d never elect a racist asshole and we got Trump. And in the past, when we chose who we thought would probably win instead of who we really wanted (Kerry, Dukakis, Gore) we lost.

Vote for who you want. Support who you want. You may be surprised at how well you do.

Mind you, as a Political Science grad who worked on political campaigns and runs a political blog and taught political science at the college level, you could consider me an “expert” — and I’m one of those experts who has been proven wrong.

I now think what is most important when people vote is personality and charisma, which can overcome any negatives a candidate may have. “Do they look like a President?” should be the main question.

I’d love to see a Warren / Harris ticket, but people are saying they can’t win.  I think that the kind of person who would refuse to vote for two women on the ticket probably isn’t going to vote for a Democrat anyway. I think we can win by getting our base excited and actually coming out to vote, like they did for Obama. There are more of us than them, and when we vote, we win.

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Doing the Republican’s job to attack Democrats

We Democrats have some very good candidates this time. Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Elizabeth Warren, Julian Castro … I’d be happy to have any of them as President.

So please Democrats. Pick your favorite and support that person without thinking that means attacking the other ones.

We’re all on the same team and we’re debating who is the most valuable player. We don’t have to say bad things about the other players to build up our favorite.

Saying “I prefer Harris’ health plan to Booker’s” is not an attack, and you can then debate why. Saying “Booker is an idiot and his plan is the stupidest ever and I will never vote for him” doesn’t help at all.

This does not apply if one of these candidates turns out to be corrupt or does illegal things. Yeah, then they deserve to be attacked.

So let’s keep our debate civil and reasonable, and not do the Republican (and Russian) job for them.

Harris

My current favorite, but that doesn’t mean I dislike the others