Polls and Predictions and how to destroy them

Right now, most polls are saying that Democrats will hold the Senate but lose the House. All the polls and predictions are based on past turn-out and what the predictors expect given historical trends. (The party in power almost always loses in the mid-terms.)

So if lots and lots of Democrats vote in the midterms — which is not what usually happens — it will be a massive change from what they predict.

And especially if lots of women vote, because that would be grand. The woman vote could really make the difference and that would force all politicians to pay attention, afraid that they might lose their next election if they don’t listen.

We’ve already seen some of the power of people actually coming out to vote. The anti-abortion measure in Kansas lost by a huge margin; special elections in a few places showed a much greater Democratic response than predicted; and it is certainly possible that this could happen again in November.

But only if we don’t act like we always act.

There’s more of us than them, but when we sit things out like we normally do in midterms, we lose. Republicans know that, which is why they spend so much time doing everything they can to make it harder to vote. They can’t win based on the issues so they have to rely on cheating.

We have to overwhelm them. To get their attention, we have to hit them over the head with a million-pound shithammer (as Hunter Thompson used to say).

So if you’re not registered to vote, do it now! And then show up. Let’s prove the predictors wrong.