Clinton’s loss took everyone by surprise. Even Fox News had predicted her win. And did you see Trump’s expression on election night? Even he seemed astonished.
Everyone has a theory why this happened but the real answer is complicated. Anyone who insists there is just one reason is wrong.
Protest Voters. Many of my liberal friends seem to be only blaming those who voted for 3rd party candidates. There are always 3rd party candidates, and we’ll probably never get rid of them because there is a small percentage of voters who somehow think “This year for sure!” or otherwise delude themselves into believing these votes make a difference. They never do. And this was the year — when you had two candidates whose negatives were higher than their positives — where a 3rd party could have risen and won. None of them came close. If it didn’t happen this year, it never will.
Did this have an impact on the final vote? Sure, but you always expect there will be a few percentage points going to some minor fringe candidate. Blaming the people who are always there and when you knew they were going to be there solves nothing.
They hate the Clintons. The Democrats just really underestimated how much people really don’t like the Clintons. Her negatives were huge. Most of it was unjustified and based on lies and right-wing propaganda, but justified or not, it was there. Nominating an unpopular candidate and then losing the election? Where is the surprise there?
And there were many Democrats who (like me) did not really like Clinton that much either but voted for her over Cheetoface. But there was no enthusiasm there. The enthusiasm gap really hurt us.
We Want Outsiders. Everyone is sick and tired of politics as usual. We’ve had enough Bushes and Clintons running things. On the GOP side, all the insiders lost their primary runs.
One reason Bernie Sanders had a lot of support is because, even though he had been in politics most of his life, he was the one railing against the insiders and Wall Street and “business as usual” — meanwhile, Hillary was giving speeches to Goldman Sachs. There’s nothing wrong with that, but that’s not the image you wanted this year.
We Democrats didn’t pay attention to this anger. The people on both sides are angry and we ignored them and picked the insider.
This is not to say Bernie would have won. There would have been terrible attacks on him, but I don’t see how it would have been any worse than the ones leveled against Hillary. Had Hillary not run, we would have been in a better position, as there are some very qualified candidates out there who probably could have destroyed Trump.
Now, on the Republican side, the irony is that Trump is not an outsider. The man is a millionaire who knows nothing about what the average man goes through and has never in his life shown the slightest interest in them. But hey, he’s a great con man, and this will go down as one of the greatest cons of all time.
Racists and Bigots. You can’t deny that this was their year — finally, a candidate who stood for hatred! When the KKK and the American Nazi Party endorse someone, that’s a pretty good sign. Their people usually don’t get involved but they saw their orange savior on the hill, and were going to come out and vote for him no matter what.
We’ve already started to see what this means; hate crimes have gone up as these people have become bolder. And it’s just going to get worse — but that’s a topic for another post.
This, in many ways, is what always happens historically. Progress is made and there are those who will constantly fight against it and conserve their precious way of life (that’s why they are “conservatives”). This backlash against progress explains the Civil War, the backlash against the Restoration efforts afterward, the fight against civil rights, the fights over immigrants that is constant in our history, and so on. In the end, progress always wins but there are many battles along the way.
That Woman Thing. Here in Pennsylvania, Democrats swept the state offices that were on the ballot — Attorney General, Auditor, Treasurer. The two that we lost? Senator and President — the only ones with female candidates. And we lost those by slim margins.
It’s not hard to imagine that there may be 2% of the population that is still so neanderthal that they won’t vote for a woman no matter how qualified.
Voter suppression. Republicans have done everything they can to keep Democrats from being able to vote. They’ve even admitted as such when they didn’t think anyone was paying attention. There were lots of stories about how the Republican-run states were closing precincts in minority neighborhoods, removing names from voting lists, and otherwise cheating to help their clown win, and they wouldn’t be doing it if it wasn’t effective.
Basically, Republicans will do everything they can to win an election except get the most votes.
Dirty tricks. Russia has now admitted it was helping Trump win. The FBI Director had a Trump sign on his lawn and did everything he could to discredit Hillary at a time when her chances were the greatest, and then recanted it all on a slow news day when hardly anyone noticed. Wikileaks posted fake emails. These things may not be the reason Clinton lost, but they certainly were a reason.
The Hubris of the Elite. This is a big one. I could write a book about this.
The real divide in America right now is not blue state versus red state — it’s urban versus rural. And the rural folks are being tired of being made fun of every night on the talk shows, tired of people calling them rubes for clinging to their religion, tired of being told they’re bigots. The “fly over” states are resentful of the “elite” who look down on the uneducated masses.
This is not new; it’s a basic populist message that has gained votes for generations.
I am not saying these people are right. A lot of them really are bigots, and deserve to be called that. They stand in the way of progress, wave their Confederate flags and refuse to serve gay couples. Many of them really are a “basket of deplorables.”
But they’re also not all like that. There are some good rural people who feel left out and who think no one stands up for them. They’ve seen their factories and mines close and take all the jobs in town away, and whatever economic progress is made always goes to the cities. They listen to Fox News and believe all their lies about what Obama is doing, and don’t realize that the programs he pushes helps them too. And they’re resentful and angry.
Many could not stand Trump but (like many Democrats did with Hillary) they held their nose and voted for him anyway because it was better than the alternative. And that’s not going to change until the media and political elite stop treating them like idiots — even when they are idiots.
We Just Don’t Vote. The Republicans voted in the same basic numbers they always have, and we didn’t this time. Our numbers were down. So of course we lost. It doesn’t matter if there are more of us than them. If we don’t vote, they win.
In fact, a majority of Americans didn’t vote at all. If you insist on placing the blame on one factor, that would be it.
The government isn’t “them.” It’s us. We, the people. And as a society, we can’t bitch about what the government does if we don’t even do the most basic thing and get out and vote. It’s our fault.
That Damned Electoral College. For the fourth time in our history, the person with fewer votes won the election, and that’s twice now in the last 16 years — both times giving us absolutely terrible Presidents. (Hey, at least now George W. Bush can go down in history as the 2nd Worst President.)
Isn’t it ridiculous that the person the majority of Americans voted against gets to be President? (And, of course, Trump being Trump, he’s now claiming he has a “mandate.” What an asshole. And no, I’m not going to suddenly give him respect just because he has that office. I’ll respect the office, not the man.)
I’ve ranted about the Electoral College before, and if you’re interested, check this post and read the very extensive comments.
And finally, a disclaimer: This is a very basic overview and not the treatise that could and will be written about this terrible election.
I need more sleep. And alcohol.
Democrats, Republican leadership, Newspapers, Columnists: “Don’t drive into that iceberg!” Americans: “Look, an iceberg! Let’s hit it!”
This was the last dying cry of the Angry White Man: “If I’m going down, I’m taking you all with me!”
I said all along that we should have nominated Bernie because too many people didn’t like Hillary and she might lose, and was roundly criticized by many Democrats for my naive view, insisting she would win. One of us was proven wrong last night.
That doesn’t mean I was right, of course, but the electorate is angry at politics as usual. It’s why Bernie was popular and why he had the enthusiastic support Hillary could only dream of. Even though Bernie has been in government for a long time, he has never been seen as the “insider.”
We saw the same thing with the GOP — they rejected all the insiders and went for the agitator, the angry guy who vowed to fight against the Washington elite (which includes the Republicans, of course).
The Democrats just always underestimate how much a large percentage of the country hates the Clintons. This same percentage rejected another Bush too, but we didn’t learn the lesson from that we should have.
The GOP ultimately only have themselves to blame for creating the atmosphere where this could happen.
Everything I was taught with my Political Science degree didn’t mean a thing this year, and it appears that every other “expert” probably feels the same way right now.
Even if I agreed with Trump on all the issues, I can’t believe people would support such a vulgar, crude, happily ignorant man. When you have an image of what a President looks like, Trump is the exact opposite of that.
Does this send a message to Republicans? “See? We should be more racist, more sexist, more crude. Clearly that’s what people want.”
This is American’s version of Brexit. Stock markets have already fallen; the economy is on its way down just in anticipation of what Trump will do to it. But of course, no matter how often that happens under Republicans, they’ll find some way to blame the Democrats.
If you are worried about a Trump presidency and you did not do everything in your power to prevent it, don’t go whining to me that you’re not responsible because you voted for a third party.
On one hand, Trump will probably just go around the country giving speeches and letting Pence run everything. On the other hand, Pence is worse than Trump in many ways, because he actually believes the crap he says.
And finally, one last thought given my lack of sleep and coffee: Given that all the experts were wrong in their predictions, maybe Trump was right about the election being rigged? Has anyone seen Putin’s computer anywhere?
Someone asked why people were knocking on doors campaigning this late – surely everyone has made their minds up by now.
One of the most important things a campaign can do is go door to door, identify which voters are going to support the candidate, and then make sure they have a ride to the polls. It’s not about convincing people to vote for your candidate at that point.
On election day, you call them again and remind them to vote and get them to the polls if they haven’t already. You have volunteers with cars (and donuts and coffee) to take them.
This is the Get Out the Vote part of the campaign that wins elections. The GOTV part of every campaign is important.
Trust me; I used to do this for a living. I was a campaign manager for a state rep in Boston way back in the 80s.
Here’s how it worked:
We had a list of registered Democrats. We’d go door to door, talk to them, and then put numbers next to each name. 5 meant they were definitely voting for our candidate, 4 meant maybe, on down to 1 meaning absolutely no way.
When you’ve contacted all the Democrats, then you start knocking on the independents’ doors. If you get through them (highly unlikely; by this time, that’s a lot of doors), you can try knocking on Republicans, but there’s probably a better use of your time.
Then as the election gets close, you call them to remind them, starting with all the 5s. When you’ve finished the 5s, you go to the 4s, and so on.
And on election day, you do it again, to make sure they have voted and see if they need a ride.
That’s how you win elections.
Hillary has a strong GOTV organization. Trump has none. It will make a difference in close states.
Every Who Down in Whoville Liked Clinton a lot…
But the Grinch, who lived just north of Whoville, did not!
The Grinch hated Clinton that bordered on fear
Something about emails but it’s not quite clear
I think that the most likely reason of all,
May have been that his brain was two sizes too small.
And he growled, with his Grinch fingers nervously drumming,
“I must stop this stupid election from coming!”
“I know just what to do!” The Grinch laughed all around.
And he jumped in his car and drove into town.
All the Whos were all dreaming sweet dreams without care.
When he came to the first little house on the square.
“This is stop number one.” The Grinch made a bee-line
And he ran ‘cross the lawn for the “Hillary” sign
He continued all night, taking signs near and far
Then he loaded them all in the back of his car
“Pooh Pooh to the Whos!” he said with a big grin.
“They’re finding out now that Clinton can’t win!”
And he turned on the tube and rubbed at his eyes
He couldn’t believe that horrible surprise
Every Who down in Whoville, the tall and the small,
Had voted for Hillary without signs at all!
“Maybe voting,” he thought, “doesn’t come from a sign.”
“Maybe choosing a candidate is more benign”
And did the Grinch change? Now don’t be a chump
The Grinch after all, was a voter for Trump.
Dear Trump supporters:
Just for the hell of it, let’s pretend a Democrat is running for President. And then let’s imagine you discover the following:
I could go on, but the question remains: Would you let a Democrat get away with these things? Be honest now.
