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Oscar Predictions 2014

I’m one of those unusual straight guys who doesn’t know who won the Super Bowl, but can tell you what won Best Picture for the past thirty years.

Below are my predictions for tonight’s show.  This is not my list of what I want to win, but merely what I think will win.  Oscar loves serious movies about important topics and movies about movies.  (That’s why “Argo” and “The Artist” won the past two years).  “12 Years a Slave” has that Oscar seriousness the voters like.  Even if it’s not the Best Picture Of The Year, sometimes Oscar likes to pat itself on the back for tacking serious issues, which is why it is rare that films like “The Return of the King” win.  (And why “The Hobbit” was not nominated for best makeup this year.)

Feel free to post your predictions below and we’ll compare tomorrow.

Best Picture:  12 Years a Slave

Best Director:  Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity) oscar

Best Actor:  Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

Best Actress:  Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)

Best Supporting Actor:  Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyongo (12 Years a Slave)

Best Original Screenplay:  American Hustle

Best Adapted Screenplay:  12 Years a Slave

Best Animated Feature:  Frozen

Best Foreign Film:  The Great Beauty

Best Production Design:  The Great Gatsby

Best Cinematography:  Gravity

Best Documentary Feature:  20 Feet from Stardom

Best Costume Design:  The Great Gatsby

Best Editing:  Gravity

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:  Dallas Buyers Club

Best Score:  Gravity

Best Sound Mixing:  Gravity

Best Sound Editing:  Gravity

Best Song:  Let it Go (Frozen)

Best Visual Effects:  Gravity

Best Animated Short:  Get a Horse!

Best Documentary Short:  The Lady in Number 6

Best Live Action Short:  The Voorman Problem

And now, my updated list of the films that won Best Picture and my choice of what should have won.  This is an entirely subjective list, although I did consider Oscar worthiness.  For instance, while “Monty Python and the Holy Grail” may be one of my favorite films, even I don’t think it deserved an Oscar.

Admittedly, I have not seen every single film on this list.  Sometimes I really don’t need to — I don’t have to see “The Greatest Show on Earth” to know that “Singin’ in the Rain” is better.  Just about every critic in the world would agree on that.

What Won What Should Have Won
1928 Wings The Circus
1929 Broadway Melody Steamboat Bill, Jr.
1930 All Quiet on the Western Front All Quiet on the Western Front
1931 Cimarron City Lights
1932 Grand Hotel Scarface
1933 Calvacade King Kong
1934 It Happened One Night It Happened One Night
1935 Mutiny on the Bounty Mutiny on the Bounty
1936 The Great Ziegfeld Modern Times
1937 The Life of Emile Zola Snow White & The Seven Dwarfs
1938 You Can’t Take it With You The Adventures of Robin Hood
1939 Gone With the Wind The Wizard of Oz
1940 Rebecca The Grapes of Wrath
1941 How Green Was My Valley Citizen Kane
1942 Mrs. Miniver Sullivan’s Travels
1943 Casablanca Casablanca
1944 Going My Way Double Indemnity
1945 The Lost Weekend Spellbound
1946 The Best Years of Our Lives It’s a Wonderful Life
1947 Gentleman’s Agreement Monsieur Verdoux
1948 Hamlet The Treasure of the Sierra Madre
1949 All the King’s Men All the King’s Men
1950 All About Eve Sunset Boulevard
1951 An American in Paris An American in Paris
1952 The Greatest Show on Earth Singin’ in the Rain
1953 From Here to Eternity From Here to Eternity
1954 On the Waterfront Rear Window
1955 Marty Mister Roberts
1956 Around the World in 80 Days The Searchers
1957 The Bridge on the River Kwai Witness for the Prosecution
1958 Gigi Touch of Evil
1959 Ben-Hur Some Like it Hot
1960 The Apartment Psycho
1961 West Side Story Judgment at Nuremberg
1962 Lawrence of Arabia Lawrence of Arabia
1963 Tom Jones Tom Jones
1964 My Fair Lady Dr. Strangelove
1965 The Sound of Music The Sound of Music
1966 A Man for All Seasons A Man for All Seasons
1967 In The Heat of the Night Bonnie and Clyde
1968 Oliver 2001: A Space Odyssey
1969 Midnight Cowboy Butch Cassidy & The Sundance Kid
1970 Patton M*A*S*H
1971 The French Connection A Clockwork Orange
1972 The Godfather The Godfather
1973 The Sting American Graffiti
1974 The Godfather Part 2 The Godfather Part 2
1975 One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest
1976 Rocky Taxi Driver
1977 Annie Hall Annie Hall
1978 The Deer Hunter The Deer Hunter
1979 Kramer verses Kramer Apocalypse Now
1980 Ordinary People The Empire Strikes Back
1981 Chariots of Fire Raiders of the Lost Ark
1982 Gandhi ET
1983 Terms of Endearment The Right Stuff
1984 Amadeus Amadeus
1985 Out of Africa Brazil
1986 Platoon Platoon
1987 The Last Emperor Empire of the Sun
1988 Rain Man Rain Man
1989 Driving Miss Daisy Do The Right Thing
1990 Dances with Wolves Goodfellas
1991 The Silence of the Lambs The Silence of the Lambs
1992 Unforgiven Malcolm X
1993 Schindler’s List Schindler’s List
1994 Forrest Gump Pulp Fiction
1995 Braveheart The American President
1996 The English Patient Fargo
1997 Titanic Amistad
1998 Shakespeare in Love Saving Private Ryan
1999 American Beauty American Beauty
2000 Gladiator Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon
2001 A Beautiful Mind The Fellowship of the Ring
2002 Chicago The Two Towers
2003 The Return of the King The Return of the King
2004 Million Dollar Baby Kill Bill 2
2005 Crash Munich
2006 The Departed The Departed
2007 No Country for Old Men No Country For Old Men
2008 Slumdog Millionaire The Dark Knight
2009 The Hurt Locker Inglorius Basterds
2010 The King’s Speech The Social Network
2011 The Artist Hugo
2012 Argo Lincoln

Editorial cartoon: I like Ike

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Whatever Obama does, it will be wrong

If Obama tries to solve the Ukraine situation with diplomacy: He’s weak and ineffectual.

If Obama takes military action: He’s rash and careless with our troops’ lives.

Remember, if you are a Republican, the bottom line is this: No matter what Obama does, it’s always the wrong thing.Obama-Putin

This “Obama is always wrong” attitude must really hurt them, because in their hearts they can’t really believe it, can they?  I recall when bin Laden was killed, and you could see it in their faces.  They wanted so much to cheer and celebrate like the rest of us, but they had to find some fault with Obama.  It was just impossible for them to give him credit.  Then they had to deal with Gaddafi.  Had George W. Bush gotten rid of him, the praises would never end.  But Obama doing it?  It’s terrible.

They are now blaming Obama for the Ukraine/Russia situation because, of course, the world reacts to the United States and never does anything on its own.   In all seriousness, the situation in the Ukraine has nothing to do with Obama.  This protest would have happened no matter who was President, and Putin would have taken action no matter what.  You know that’s true.

But some conservatives are pointing to Sarah Palin and giving her credit (I am not making this up) for predicting that Putin would attack the Ukraine if Obama was President.  Why Putin waited six years until Ukraine rebelled against him with no encouragement or backing from Obama, she hasn’t explained yet.  (Palin also predicted that Obama would invade Pakistan, too.)

The Ukraine uprising is a good thing.  It is a move towards modernization and away from the repressive Russian government.  We should be encouraging this completely.

Ironically, many of the conservatives who are criticizing Putin had just months ago praised him and called him “The Leader of the Free World” for his cracking down on gays.  Seriously, because when you think of “free world” you immediately think of throwing people in jail because you’re a bigot.

So let’s revisit this post in a bit and see if I am correct.  No matter what decision Obama makes, the right will criticize it.  And I predict this as well:  Someone on the right will have said beforehand what they would do in his place — and then when Obama does that, they will back down and claim that it is a bad idea.  Wait and see.

Editorial cartoon: Table that content

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“He only won because he’s black”

Michelle Bachmann said Americans voted for Obama because he was black and they felt guilty. Yep! That’s why I supported Jesse Jackson, Al Sharpton, Carol Mosley-Braun and Herman Cain. s-michele-bachmann-large300

No. Wait. I remember now. I didn’t support any of those people.

Dammit! Why can’t the world be as simple as Michelle Bachmann, where there is black and white and nothing inbetween — where the color of someone’s skin is the determining factor instead of complicated things like their experience, stand on the issues, and education?

But no, that’s just too subtle for her. The fact that the majority of Americans supported a Senator who graduated at the top of his class from both Columbia and Harvard Law, whose positions on the issues most matched theirs, and who belonged to the party that had won more votes in three of the last four Presidential races is completely meaningless to her, because the only thing she sees is the color of Obama’s skin.

Let’s see … there is a word for someone like that, isn’t there?

Editorial cartoon: WWJDA?

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Texas joins the 21st century

Every time another court strikes down a state’s anti-gay marriage law, I post that the state has joined the 21st century.   I’m not sure I should though, because many of these states are fighting against such progress.
gay-texas
Still, progress it is.  There hasn’t been a single case where the judge upheld the state’s discriminatory law.

All of these will eventually get to the US Supreme Court where they can do one of three things:  (1) decide that the entire country must allow gay marriage (or as we like to call it: “marriage”);  (2) reverse these decisions (which would still allow the states to decide on their own to do it through their legislatures or state courts); or  (3) not take any of these cases which will make these decisions stand.

It’s inevitable.  And more and more, those who oppose equality are realizing that.

And look, we didn’t even have to commit treason against our government to get our way!

Editorial cartoon: Global harming

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Treason is only patriotic when the right does it

Hey, remember when a majority of Americans voted against George W. Bush yet he became President by, let’s say, “less than ideally democratic” means?  Were there any mainstream liberals calling for an overthrow of the government?  I can’t recall any, and a search finds none.

Yet we are constantly hearing such talk from the right concerning Obama — who won twice by huge margins.  These sore losers are not just some crazed radicals (both parties have those) — these are people who get coverage on legitimate talk shows and on legitimate (albeit right-wing) blogs.

The gun lovers are mostly the ones who make these arguments, as if treason were patriotic, but other un-American right-wingers apparently think not getting their way because they are in the minority is the exact same thing as tyranny.  It must be hard to live in a world when you are this delusional, but there you go.  (Here’s where all the people advocating the overthrow of our democratically elected government get mad that I called them “un-American.”  There’s that delusion I spoke of;  how else can you classify someone who is so against democracy?)

Of course, none of this is too surprising, as some conservatives are still upset about the Civil War and make excuses for the slave-owning Southerners who committed treason.

Editorial cartoon: Light dawns