Eric Cantor

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Immigrant Policy was Not the Reason

Quick!  We need a reason to explain Eric Cantor’s loss!  It doesn’t make sense!

Hmmm, his opponent talked a lot about immigration!  That must be the reason.  We’re the press;  we have to have a reason now!  There’s no time to analyze it, what do you think we are, journalists?  Immigration reform!  That’s it!  Those people in Virginia just hate immigrants.  There, we’re done.Eric Cantor

What’s that?  Poll after poll show that the people of that district support immigration reform?  And by a huge margin?  Well, too late — we’ve already made our pronouncement.  Immigration.  That’s it.  All Republicans should now take hard-line approaches to immigration if they don’t want to lose their primaries.

Approval ratings?  What?  You think that the fact that Cantor’s disapproval rating in his district was 63% is important?  That only 30% supported him and that most people would have voted for Mickey Mouse if he were on the ballot in opposition to Cantor?   That his constituents were mad at Cantor for shutting down the government and for ignoring the needs of his district in his quest for national attention?

Nah, that can’t be it.  And it’s too complicated.  We’re the news media — we need a quick and easy explanation.

Immigration.  That’s it.  Stop!  We’re not listening la la la la la la la la…

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Cantor’s Defeat Explained

OK, so why did Eric Cantor, next-in-line to the Republican leadership, lose his seat in yesterday’s election?

1.  The Republicans have gotten so crazy that even Cantor was seen as a “RINO”  (Republican In Name Only) for being reasonable enough to support things like immigration reform. cantor For Cantor to be accused of being “liberal” is like accusing Bernie Sanders of being a “conservative.”  No sane person would believe it.  And therein lies your answer.    

2.  Hardly anybody voted.  Who can you always count on to vote?  That’s right — the extremists.  People who are angry.  And people who are politically active (who also tend to be more liberal and more conservative than the average person).  So when you stay home, they get their way.  And that’s why the guys elected often seem to not represent their constituents — because they really don’t.

3.  It was an open primary.  This means people who are not Republicans got to choose the candidate.  In open primaries, the opposite party will sometimes go out and vote for the candidate they think will be easier to defeat in November.  Democrats did this yesterday, although it is unclear whether it was in sufficient numbers to have made a difference, since Cantor was pretty well trounced.

So Cantor’s loss gives us good news and bad news.

Good news: Eric Cantor has lost his seat in the House

Bad news: He lost it to someone crazier than he is

Good news: This tea party guy won’t have the seniority or power Cantor had and so will do less damage

Bad news: It’s such a Republican district, the Democrats have little chance of winning in November