Elections

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Immigrant Policy was Not the Reason

Quick!  We need a reason to explain Eric Cantor’s loss!  It doesn’t make sense!

Hmmm, his opponent talked a lot about immigration!  That must be the reason.  We’re the press;  we have to have a reason now!  There’s no time to analyze it, what do you think we are, journalists?  Immigration reform!  That’s it!  Those people in Virginia just hate immigrants.  There, we’re done.Eric Cantor

What’s that?  Poll after poll show that the people of that district support immigration reform?  And by a huge margin?  Well, too late — we’ve already made our pronouncement.  Immigration.  That’s it.  All Republicans should now take hard-line approaches to immigration if they don’t want to lose their primaries.

Approval ratings?  What?  You think that the fact that Cantor’s disapproval rating in his district was 63% is important?  That only 30% supported him and that most people would have voted for Mickey Mouse if he were on the ballot in opposition to Cantor?   That his constituents were mad at Cantor for shutting down the government and for ignoring the needs of his district in his quest for national attention?

Nah, that can’t be it.  And it’s too complicated.  We’re the news media — we need a quick and easy explanation.

Immigration.  That’s it.  Stop!  We’re not listening la la la la la la la la…

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Cantor’s Defeat Explained

OK, so why did Eric Cantor, next-in-line to the Republican leadership, lose his seat in yesterday’s election?

1.  The Republicans have gotten so crazy that even Cantor was seen as a “RINO”  (Republican In Name Only) for being reasonable enough to support things like immigration reform. cantor For Cantor to be accused of being “liberal” is like accusing Bernie Sanders of being a “conservative.”  No sane person would believe it.  And therein lies your answer.    

2.  Hardly anybody voted.  Who can you always count on to vote?  That’s right — the extremists.  People who are angry.  And people who are politically active (who also tend to be more liberal and more conservative than the average person).  So when you stay home, they get their way.  And that’s why the guys elected often seem to not represent their constituents — because they really don’t.

3.  It was an open primary.  This means people who are not Republicans got to choose the candidate.  In open primaries, the opposite party will sometimes go out and vote for the candidate they think will be easier to defeat in November.  Democrats did this yesterday, although it is unclear whether it was in sufficient numbers to have made a difference, since Cantor was pretty well trounced.

So Cantor’s loss gives us good news and bad news.

Good news: Eric Cantor has lost his seat in the House

Bad news: He lost it to someone crazier than he is

Good news: This tea party guy won’t have the seniority or power Cantor had and so will do less damage

Bad news: It’s such a Republican district, the Democrats have little chance of winning in November

 

 

 

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Money decided the election here

Now, don’t get me wrong.  Tom Wolf is a good man and I agree with his positions on the issues.  I supported him for Governor in the Democratic Primary Tuesday, but that was a late endorsement when it was clear he was going to win.  I felt that we all needed to get behind a strong candidate in order to defeat Republican Tom Corbett in the fall.

But Wolf would not be where he is today if not for money.   giphy

The main candidates didn’t differ that much on the issues.  But Wolf spent something like $10 million of his own money to win this election, and the others just could not compete.

It’s sad that money has so much power in America to sway elections.  But then, that’s one of the reasons I supported Wolf.  He’ll have the money in the general election to fight Corbett like he needs to be fought.

Let’s face it, money doesn’t always guarantee a win.  (Hi, President Forbes!)  It can’t make an unlikable candidate charismatic.  But it sure can help a good candidate zoom past other good candidates.

Wolf not only spent lots of money, but also spent it wisely.  He hired the best consultants and ran excellent commercials in the right markets.  Many Democrats like me noticed and said “Any of the candidates would make a good Governor, but only one seems to be way ahead of the others in being a good campaigner.”

I’d love to see campaign finance reform change the game.  But until then, we have to play by the rules as they exist.  And lots of money helps you win.

 

 

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Tomorrow is Primary Election day in Pennsylvania

Might as well say it now, and get it out of the way:  If you don’t vote, don’t complain.

Tom Wolf

Tom Wolf

Tomorrow is primary election day in Pennsylvania.  Turn out will be extremely low.  It’s a non-Presidential year, and in Pennsylvania, you have to be registered to a party to vote in the primary (sorry, independents).

This means that your vote is worth a lot more.  One vote can really make a difference in a small election.

If you are a Pennsylvania resident, this election is tremendously important.  Right now, the Republicans have a majority in our state house and in the governor’s office.  Our current governor is one of the most unpopular in the entire country and is quite beatable, but we Democrats need to pick someone who can stomp our current governor into the ground.  

Electing a Democrat will mean accepting the Obamacare medicare plan into a state that wants it (according to all polls).

Brad-Koplinski1

Brad Koplinski

 It will mean pushing for marriage equality (in the only northeastern state that doesn’t have it).  It will even mean pushing for a fairer tax system and maybe even marijuana legalization.

I hope you will vote for Tom Wolf for governor and  Brad Koplinsky for Lt. Governor.  I’ve met both and they’re very committed and intelligent men who deserve your vote.  (Brad, by the way, graduated from my law school, so admittedly we spent most of our time together reminiscing about professors we had in common. Not only that, but he knows how to spell “lieutenant.”)

And don’t forget the other races.  There are good candidates who deserve your support for state representative and state senate.  There may even be other local races on the ballot where your vote is tremendously important (mayor, judge, dog catcher…). Please do a search for your area and see who is running so you can make up your mind.

 

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I am in favor of murder and rape, according to Republicans

Yes, it is true.  I have represented some terrible people.  That’s my job as a defense attorney.

Clearly, then, I support criminal activity.  I mean, there is no other explanation.  It certainly can’t be that I support the United States Constitution, especially the 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th amendments.

The Republican Governor’s Association knows this is true.  They are running ads against a Democrat in South Carolina who fought against the powerful District Attorneys and Attorneys General, who protected citizens against abuses by the police, who made sure that everyone’s Constitutional rights were not violated as they went through the system, and even helped some innocent people fight against unfair accusations.

So what do the ads say?  “He supported violent criminals instead of South Carolina.”

So yes, it’s true.  I am an anti-American person who doesn’t deserve any respect, because I am in favor of crime.  I am lower than the people I represent.  How dare I demand that we obey the Constitution.

Let’s hope this ad backfires on the GOP, as it should.

But then again, this is South Carolina, where they elected Mark Sanford after he had used government money to support his mistress.  Violating the Ten Commandments?  No big deal.  Supporting the United States Constitution?  What a terrible person!

 

 

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Democrats represent the mainstream

Sorry, Republicans, but your claims that you represent “mainstream America” is just another one of your lies.   pinocchio

A majority of Americans support Obamacare.  (This is especially true if you call it “the Affordable Care Act.”)

A majority thinks gay marriage,  abortion and marijuana should be legal.

A majority supports more gun control.

A majority wants to raise taxes on the wealthy and do not believe that “corporations are people.”

A majority want to raise the minimum wage and do something about campaign finance reform.   (And a majority support amending the Constitution to overturn the Citizen’s United case).

That’s why I have been complaining here about wimpy Democrats who refuse to discuss these issues.  They’re winning issues!  They are “mainstream America.”

As our country becomes a plutocracy, it’s even more important that Democrats take a page from Teddy Roosevelt and come out swinging against the monopolies, corporations, and billionaires who have ruined our country in the same way they did during Roosevelt’s time.  (Before you point out that Teddy Roosevelt was a Republican, please learn some history.  The Republican party was the liberal party back then — the party of Lincoln.)

So when you hear a Republican politician claim that America is against health care or gay marriage or raising the minimum wage or basically just about anything, just remember — the facts don’t support their claims.

Which is not surprising.

 

 

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Wimpy Democrats bound to lose again

Sometimes it seems like the Republicans are the Bully Party and the Democrats are the Wimpy party.  (Or maybe that makes the Republicans the Bluto party?)Wimpy

I remember the Dukakis campaign.  I lived in Boston at the time and did a little work on it and recall how the senior Bush called Dukakis a “liberal” as if it was a bad thing — that Dukakis should be ashamed.  Dukakis wimped out and didn’t stand up and say “Yes, I am a liberal, like John F. Kennedy and Franklin Roosevelt, and I am proud of that” until about a week before the election, when it was too late.  Instead, liberals cowed down and started calling themselves “progressives” because “liberal” suddenly became bad.  Wimps.

The GOP still sets the agenda by bullying their way in, and the Democrats let them.  The Republicans claim to be the party of fiscal responsibility and morality and everything else and rarely do Democrats challenge them on this like they should.  The GOP is now claiming that Obamacare is a terrible disaster when studies show that it is successful, and that a majority of Americans like it.  Yet Democrats are cowering because they are too frightened to embrace things that the American public wants.

“Obamacare will be a disaster!” the conservatives screamed.  “There’s no way we’ll get 5 million people to sign up for it!”  We’re at 6.5 million as of today, but how many Democrats do you see proclaiming that victory?  Why aren’t the Democrats touting all the success stories about people who are covered now that previously weren’t, and who are paying much less?  Instead, we get Republican commercials full of lies.  (Of course, some of that is due to the Koch brothers spending billions to spread their propaganda, which is very hard to overcome.)

But the public is on our side.

Americans often categorize themselves as “conservative,” but their views on the issues align with Democrats more often than they do with Republicans.

A majority of Americans support Obamacare.  A majority thinks gay marriage,  abortion and marijuana should be legal.  A majority supports more gun control.  A majority want to raise the minimum wage and do something about campaign finance reform.  A majority wants to raise taxes on the wealthy and do not believe that “corporations are people.”

These positions are not radical dreams of the left.  They are mainstream.  For Democrats to shy away from what a majority of Americans want is ridiculous.

Editorial cartoon: Why Democrats lose elections

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NC GOP Candidates think they can ban contraceptives

Almost fifty years ago the United States Supreme Court decided Griswold v. Connecticut.  It’s a case I remember learning in High School, then again in college, and then again in law school.  It’s one of the most important cases decided, in which the court held that the government doesn’t have the right to ban contraceptives.   120323_JURIS_Pills.jpg.CROP.rectangle3-large

Recently, every single Republican candidate for Senate in North Carolina stated that the state had the right to ban contraceptives.

That’s wrong. I’m not saying their opinion is wrong (OK, I am) — this is just factually wrong. The state does not have the right to ban contraceptives, and hasn’t for fifty years. This is not a matter of opinion.

I mean, you’d think if you were applying for a job where you got to write laws you might actually want to know something about, you know, laws and stuff.  Just sayin’.

 

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Population shifts and what that means for elections

I love maps and statistics like this … this map shows how the country has changed over the past twenty years. Each county is color coded for how the county changed racially — a very red county means that the county’s new residents were overwhelmingly white, and a very blue county went overwhelmingly non-white.

This is important for elections in that it shows how the minority-heavy districts (which tend to be more Democratic) can change places like Virginia.   It also shows something bad for Democrats in that they are tending to concentrate in the urban areas, making the rural areas even more white and Republican than they had previously been.

Net_Race_Change_map

Anyway, there is a very good analysis of this here.  There is also an interactive map where you can zoom in and check on your county. You can click on each county and see the county’s population change. For instance, take Monroe County, Pennsylvania, where I live, just over the New Jersey border. It went hugely blue over the last twenty years and added about 17,000 new residents.

Please do not be scared away by the fact that this is from a liberal blog — the information is presented clearly and without bias, and contains information that is interesting to anyone who likes these kinds of statistics.