I recently asked my friends on Facebook who they would want as the Democratic candidate in 2026 and got a ton of responses.
Keep in mind a few things before I report what they said. First, my Facebook friends are almost entirely other liberals (duh) so this skews that direction. Second, many made the proper distinction between who they would personally like to see as President and who they think would be the best candidate (since the two are not necessarily the same). Thirdly, this was not any sort of well-designed polling. Some people named more than one candidate, some only named who they didn’t want (“Anyone but X!”), some merely said things like “I’ll vote for a toaster for President if it’s a Democrat.”
Keep in mind as well that a year is a lifetime in politics. Someone new could pop up between now and election day, and any of these named candidates could do something to ruin their chances.
So I counted mentions, even if some people mentioned more than one.
“Who, me?”
As expected, the name that popped up most is Gavin Newsom. He certainly has dominated the news lately with his brilliant attacks on Trump, and that has endeared him to many Democrats. Of course, he comes from California, and we’re going to get all their electoral votes no matter who the candidate is, so I’m not sure personally if that would be the best choice. (On the other hand, I voted for Harris, and she’s from California as well.)
Close behind was Pete Buttigieg, although most everyone who named him commented that they don’t think he has a chance. (Hey, people said the same thing about Obama when he started running.) Personally, I think Buttigieg would be great — I’d love to have someone of his intelligence in charge. However, I think he should probably get more experience. The highest office he has ever been elected to was mayor of a town in Indiana. Since getting married, he moved to Michigan and people thought he did that so he could run for Senate from there, but he shot that idea down early and has taken no steps to do so.
Third was J.B. Pritzker, another governor who has been wonderful at attacking Trump and giving Trump the respect he deserves (that is, none whatsoever). Pritzker has the personality many Democrats like, does and says the right thing, and may be a possibility.
Those three were a bit ahead of the next group. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez led the second tier. Most respondents admitted they’d want her but know that she probably could not get elected (yet). Some mentioned her as a VP choice. AOC is beloved by many Democrats but, let’s face it, she’s still young and only a representative. She probably should run for Schumer’s seat when he retires (which hopefully will be soon) and get more experience first. She could wait until 2060 and still be younger than Biden or Trump.
My own governor Josh Shapiro was in the next tier, along with Senator Mark Kelly, Governor Andy Beshear, and Representative Jasmine Crockett.
I was surprised to see that my friends hardly listed Cory Booker and Kamala Harris … Both of those would be high on my list, although I can see why people would say that Harris already had her chance and it’s not a good idea to have her try again.
In any event, this means absolutely nothing, but it was interesting to see who was popular among my Facebook friends.
The last century was the century of democracy, especially after World War II. More and more countries became democratic, and things looked good. This century has given us the opposite, as the rich and powerful take over control of countries and, often through democracy, turn them into autocracies (Russia, Turkey, Belarus, Venezuela…). Looks like the United States is on that same path. Thanks to Putin and the world’s billionaires, democracy is on the decline.
With Republican control of the Congress and the Justice Department, and with the support of a Supreme Court that allows Trump to get away with anything, it will be tremendously difficult to hold back the corruption and destruction of our civil rights.
The polls were wrong again, as they have been for every Trump election. They undercount him by about 3% each time. I will leave why that is to the experts.
Trump is the Mule of American politics.* He breaks all the rules that those of us who studied political science learned. Any other candidate doing even 5% of what Trump has done would crash and burn long before a primary. It says something about America though that we don’t have royalty but we have celebrities, and for some reason, they can get away with stuff that would destroy any other career. It is the defintion of a cult, really.
And ironically, people are not holding Trump responsible for the things he has done. Abortion was on the ballot in many states, and a majority in those states voted to keep it legal while at the same time electing the guy who was the reason they had to place those things on the ballot in the first place.
Trump proved that fear and hatred and anger generate more votes than optimism, and that is something we Democrats don’t always get. We want to bring everyone together and stop fighting, but there is a core group of Americans that believe in division: That this world is “us” verses “them.” This small-minded tribalism is not new to the world. The distrust of the “other” who is not part of your group has destroyed many cultures and has led to many wars. Republicans rely on this to get elected, warning of immigrants, gays, the transgendered, atheists, non-whites, the “woke” — whoever holds views counter to theirs is not someone who should be tolerated. They’re not someone who can be reasoned with. They’re the “enemy within.” If you disagree with them, you’re not the loyal opposition. You’re the cause of all their problems. And this is not new. Politicians have screamed this crap for years in elections … because it often works.
Trump constantly claimed that he was the subject of a witch hunt and that all the criminal charges against him were politically motivated, and we should have paid attention, because even the pollsters were telling us that his support grew the more charges that were brought against him. I’m not saying they shouldn’t have been brought, but we shouldn’t have thought that arguing that he was a criminal would help us gain support.
Harris ran a great campaign. Don’t blame her. She did everything right, including building a strong ground game, raising money, and beating Trump at their only debate.
My thought was that Trump’s support had not risen since he lost to Biden so I expected Harris to do at least as well as Biden did. However, Trump gained support largely from Black and Latino men. You’d think that wouldn’t happen, given the racist things he has said over and over again, but maybe the real reason is that these macho men can’t stand the idea of a woman being President. I mean, I’m sure that hurt Hillary Clinton as well (yes, she had other problems) but if 3% of the men will never vote for a woman President — well, there’s the margin you need in swing states.
Everyone is nervous; the election seems so close. What are we going to do?
Well, I’m going to out on a limb and predict a blue wave. If I’m right, I get to brag about what a great Political Scientist I am and if I am wrong, I will act like every other person who makes wrong predictions about the election and pretend I never said this. (wink wink)
I have posted before about why I expect Harris to win, but let me add to that list and explain in a bit more detail. Here are my reasons:
Harris is more popular than Biden. I mean, c’mon, man (as Biden would say). Biden won handily over Trump and Trump’s support has not grown in four years. Oh sure, his cultists will absolutely come out for him, but there’s a finite amount of them. (More on this below.) Here, look at how Biden did four years ago. You think Harris is going to do worse? (She may also pick up North Carolina, which is very close.)
Also, let’s not forget that the vast majority of people who died of COVID in 2020 and beyond were Trump supporters who refused to get vaccinated or wear a mask. There just aren’t as many of them now as there were then. (And many of Trump’s supporters, like Fox viewers, are over 70 and, well, there are not a lot of young people replacing them as they die off.)
Yeah, the polls are close in some of these states, but they have constantly shown Harris ahead. If the polls went back and forth between the two, there may be more room to worry but here in Pennsylvania (for example), Harris has kept her lead pretty constantly.
Trump’s support isn’t as good as it seems. The man lost the popular vote the first time he ran, never even reached a 50% approval rating his entire time as President (unlike every other person who has been President), and lost his second election by an even larger amount. A majority of Americans don’t want him.
And a large percentage of Republicans don’t want him this time, either. As a semi-incumbent, he should have gotten the numbers that Biden got in the primaries, but instead, quite often, he was lucky to get more than 50% of the registered Republicans voting for him. Many old-school Republicans (the kind who aren’t part of the Trump cult) can’t stand him, see the harm he will cause, and while they may not vote for Harris, they aren’t going to vote for Trump, either. They’ll probably just stay home. Hell, the vast majority of people who worked for Trump in the White House are out campaigning for Harris.
Harris has enthusiasm. People are excited about her campaign in a way they never were about Biden. Plus, historically, “hope” and “joy” and “optimism” beats “anger” and “fear.” Polling just opened in Georgia and it has already broken records for the number of people voting. Here in Pennsylvania, early voting shows that Democrats are voting more than Republicans in record numbers, and the number of women voting is even higher than in 2020.
Her poll numbers among the young are excellent and way beyond Trump’s. Harris is energizing younger voters in a way Biden couldn’t, and these voters don’t answer polls so they’re not always counted. Their presence, along with people who want to vote for the first woman President, may make all the difference. (Keep in mind many Republican women won’t tell others that they’re voting for her, but in the privacy of the voting booth…)
Trump chose a terrible Vice President. Trump needed to win back those Republicans mentioned above who don’t like him, but instead, he got a guy who is even more extreme and who has a lot of former baggage, not the least of which is being anti-Trump in the past, calling him the “Republican Hitler.” He was right, of course, but that won’t help get more independent voters. There are only so many Trump cultists and the nomination of Vance was what the cultist wanted but it won’t attract others or widen his appeal beyond the cultists.
The Republican party doesn’t have a lot of money.People just aren’t contributing to them in the same way they are for the Democrats. There are stories all over the states where the local parties are going broke. Meanwhile, Harris has literally raised a billion dollars for her campaign, mostly from small donations. Money means ads, workers, mailings, and many other campaign expenses. It’s tremendously important.
Trump has taken over the party. The head of the party is now Eric Trump’s wife. You remember Eric, who took money meant for a children’s cancer charity? Do you know where that money is going? If you do, tell Republicans, because many are worried that it is all going to Trump’s pockets. It certainly isn’t being shared with other candidates (unlike what Harris is doing, to make sure we can win the House and Senate as well). It’s all about Trump, after all.
Moreso, these people have no real experience in running a campaign, and they fired all those who do. The campaign is doing stupid things, like having rallies in blue states that Trump will never win, and insulting the very places he is visiting in red states. (It’s actually fun to watch how incompetent they are.)
Trump’s legal worries may influence the undecided. The Trump cultists will never change, and as Trump once said, he can shoot someone on 5th Avenue and still have their support. It’s difficult to imagine how anyone can be undecided in this election, but apparently there are a lot of clueless folks out there who have no problem voting for a lying, cheating, raping idiot who wants to be a dictator, but perhaps the more Trump spends time in court, the more these undecideds may think that maybe they don’t want a criminal as President.
Trump is old. Hey, if they could spend all their time talking about how old Biden is, we can turn it around on them now and point out that he is the oldest person ever to run for President. He’s showing more and more dementia as he campaigns, he’s refused to do debates (even on Fox!) and his rallies have people leaving as he just stands there and rambles nonsense. There’s no way that will help him.
Everyone hates Project 2025. Republicans can’t run away from it. The more people learn about it, the more they hate it. Democrats are going to constantly remind everyone of what it is and how it is essentially the GOP Platform.
And, let’s face it, there are still some reasonable Republicans and moderates out there who may come out to vote because while they don’t agree with Democratic policies, they don’t want someone in there who has vowed to be a “dictator on day one.” Some patriots will put the country’s needs over the party’s.
Democrats have done better than expected in recent elections. This may be the most important indicator and why I am making this prediction. We’ve managed to win quite a few special elections over the past few years, and in those that we didn’t win (in very red areas) we did much better than expected and much better than the polls predicted. Some of that is because we’re angry, and that gets people to the polls.
And we’re tremendously angry about abortion rights. In red states where this was on the ballot, pundits were shocked to see that even conservative voters voted to keep abortion legal. Many states have the issue on the ballots in November, which should bring more Democrats out to vote to protect this right (and then they’ll vote for the Democrats running as well).
There are more of us than there are of them. Democrats have won the popular vote in every single election except one since Bill Clinton, and the only reason Republicans got into office was because of the electoral college. We can overcome that by showing up in huge numbers in the swing states where our votes are tremendously important, like we did when Obama was elected. A huge turnout will guarantee our victory.
If we lose, it will be because we stayed at home and didn’t vote, or wasted our vote on a third party candidate. And then we can scream and shout all we want as our country moves toward a Putin-friendly dictatorship, but it won’t do any good because it will be our fault.
And now, a caveat: The GOP knows all this, so they are using their secret weapon: cheating. They’ll do everything they can to make it harder for anyone to vote; they’ll use the judges they’ve appointed to throw out ballots whenever possible; they’ll lie in campaign ads and use connections in Russia and China whose goal it is to dismantle American power; and otherwise claim to have won if they lose despite all evidence to the contrary (just like they did last time).
The bad news is that too many polls are showing the race way too tight and basically a tie when you take into consideration the margin of error.
The good news is that 99% of these polls show Harris in the lead, even if just by a few points.
Still too close for comfort and a real head-scratcher. The majority has voted against Trump twice now, he never even got a 50% approval rating when in office, he’s now a convicted felon with more charges pending, and people are still supporting him?
chart from Electoral-Vote.com, showing what the results would be today if the polls were accurate
During their debate, Trump said Harris was a Marxist and everyone knew it. One of the great things about the debate is that unlike Trump’s previous opponents, she refused to take him seriously, treated him with the disrespect he deserved, and laughed at all his crazy statements.
But let’s discuss that. Why did Trump say that when there is absolutely nothing in Harris’ resume or record to indicate Marxism?
Well, first, remember that one of the key attacks Republicans constantly do is to claim that all Democrats are socialists and Marxist and so on — an attack which works less and less these days as more and more people are saying “Socialism? You mean with national health care and child care leave and free public colleges? Yes, I’d like some socialism, please.”
But mostly, he is basing this on the fact that Harris’ father (who did not raise her) taught politics and economics, which includes a course on Marxism.
Because you can’t study economics and politics without learning about Marxism.
I took a course on Marxism when I was a Political science student, and among other things, we discussed why it didn’t work. Just because someone studied Marxism doesn’t make them a Marxist. I also took a course in Philosophy of Religion but no one would call me religious.
If the polls were exactly accurate and the election were held today (August 30, 2024), Harris would win enough states to be President.
I made this map using 538’s page where the team averages out the polls based on the reliability of the pollsters (they currently says Harris has a 59% chance of winning) and then used 270 to Win‘s mapmaking.
But let’s be realistic about these numbers.
First, remember that anything can happen between now and November. You can rest assured that Putin and others will be doing everything they can to get their toady back into office, and already the Trump folks are planning to disrupt the election, kick people off the voting lists, challenge the results (but only in blue states, of course), and otherwise cheat to win.
Note as well that polls can be inaccurate and have constantly under-estimated Trump fanatics. Pollsters now claim they are taking that into account, but this is not an exact science.
See all those very light blue states? That means Harris’ poll advantage is less than 5%, and often within the poll’s margin of error. In some states (like Pennsylvania, where I live) her poll advantage is less than one percentage point. This is going to be close, people. We have to get every single vote we can.
If Trump wins, it will most likely be like last time, where we won the popular vote and he squeezed by due to the Electoral College. (Remember that absent that stupid Electoral College, Democrats would have held the White House going all the way back to Bill Clinton.)
After a very exciting convention — one of the most enthusiastic ones I’ve seen in my lifetime — Democrats are fired up. Polls are moving in our direction, states that were once GOP locks are now within reach, and contributions are dwarfing the GOP numbers.
That doesn’t mean we will win. The swing states we need are still within that margin of error range. We have to organize, we have to work, and we have to vote.
But let’s celebrate while we can.
So here’s a collection of recent political cartoons about the convention to make you smile.
Besides the fact that the GOP is now running an angry, elderly felon against an optimistic, joyful woman, they face other challenges, such as finding a winnable issue. No, arguing over crowd sizes isn’t it, and many in the GOP are begging Trump to shut up about that. (Apparently Trump is losing his mind over the thought that he could lose to a black woman, two things he hates. This is not new. ) The two main issues the GOP raises often are, of course, lies.
The economy is doing terrible! Actually, unemployment is at its lowest, real wages have risen sharply, the world-wide inflation problem didn’t hit us as bad as the rest of the world (and is now very low), overall the stock market has boomed, mortgage rates have fallen… Sure, it’s not perfect, but it never is.
Illegal immigrants are destroying our country! Okay, let’s begin by pointing out that this is largely an appeal to racists who hate the idea that brown people are coming here, because they never object to immigrants from Western Europe. But the fact that these people are illegal is simply because we made them so, and we could easily make them legal just like it was for many immigrants last century. And many are refugees, legally arriving and asking legally to be let in. (Also illegal border crossings are much lower than they were under Trump.)
But the fact is that, unlike Trump claims, these immigrants commit less crime than citizens. They pay their taxes, they want to work, they’re coming here for a better life, and they’re nothing to be scared of unless you are a white supremacist who worries that in the future, you will be the minority in America and then the majority will treat you as terrible as you have been treating them for generations.
Democrats and Republicans worked on a bipartisan plan to help immigrants and to make sure they all come in legally, but Trump told his cult not to vote for it because he needed to blame Biden for not fixing the problem. So if illegal immigrants are destroying our country, we can blame Trump for ignoring a solution.
They are trying to hide their positions on abortion and gay rights and the other extreme things in their Project 2025 because they know their views on these issues are hated by a majority of Americans. Their plan was to win and then force all that on us against our will, like they have always done.
I’m more optimistic now that we will be able to hold these liars back, but it will require everyone to vote, because you know the MAGA cult always will.
My wife and I were firmly in the Josh Shapiro camp. Our current governor here in Pennsylvania is doing a great job and is very well respected. Plus, we need to win Pennsylvania, the biggest swing state. Without PA, it is unlikely any Democrat will win.
But as the media started writing more about Minnesota governor Tim Walz, the more I saw the potential. And now that he is the VP candidate, I am convinced that this was the right choice.
Walz will help carry those swing states that might have been suspicious of another East Coast liberal. (And let’s not discount the sad fact that there is still plenty of anti-semitism out there, which could make the difference in a close election.) So now Shapiro can travel his home state to make sure Harris captures Pennsylvania.
Admittedly, Walz’s record could be construed to be just as liberal as Shapiro (both are rather moderate in many ways), but Walz’s charm and history speaks volumes about his intentions. He just seems like the good neighborhood father that everyone trusts who wants to spend his life helping people — one of those politicians who got elected not out of some personal ego ambition, but because he saw it was the best way to help the largest amount of people.
So I have a lot more optimism these days, especially as I see the poll numbers moving quickly in our direction, and states that were clearly in the Republican column moving to the “too close to call” column.
Back in March, I posted an article where I explained why I thought Biden would win. Many of the same reasons apply, but now that Harris is the candidate (as I had hoped), I can add a few more.
Trump’s support isn’t as good as it seems. The man lost the popular vote the first time he ran, never even reached a 50% approval rating his entire time as President (unlike every other person who has been President), and lost his second election by an even larger amount. A majority of Americans don’t want him.
And a large percentage of Republicans don’t want him this time, either. As a semi-incumbent, he should have gotten the numbers that Biden got in the primaries, but instead, quite often, he was lucky to get more than 50% of the registered Republicans voting for him. Many old-school Republicans (the kind who aren’t part of the Trump cult) can’t stand him, see the harm he will cause, and while they may not vote for Harris, they aren’t going to vote for Trump, either. They’ll probably just stay home.
Trump chose a terrible Vice President. Trump needed to win back those Republicans mentioned above who don’t like him, but instead, he got a guy who is even more extreme and worse, and who has a lot of former baggage, not the least of which is being anti-Trump in the past, calling him the “Republican Hitler.” He was right, of course, but that won’t help get more independent voters. There are only so many Trump cultists and the nomination of Vance was what the cultist wanted but it won’t attract others.
The Republican party doesn’t have a lot of money.People just aren’t contributing to them in the same way they are for the Democrats. There are stories all over the states where the local parties are going broke. Meanwhile, since Harris was announced as the candidate, Democratic money has been pouring in. Money means ads, workers, mailings, and many other campaign expenses. It’s tremendously important.
Trump has taken over the party. The head of the party is now Eric Trump’s wife. You remember Eric, who took money meant for a children’s cancer charity? Well, you can bet that any money the party raises isn’t going to go to the campaign. It’s going to go to Trump (and probably his legal fees, assuming he pays them).
Moreso, these people have no real experience in running a campaign, and they fired all those who do.
Trump’s legal worries may influence the undecided. The Trump cultists will never change, and as Trump once said, he can shoot someone on 5th Avenue and still have their support. It’s difficult to imagine how anyone can be undecided in this election, but apparently there are a lot of clueless folks out there who have no problem voting for a lying, cheating, raping idiot who wants to be a dictator, but perhaps the more Trump spends time in court, the more these undecideds may think that maybe they don’t want a criminal as President.
Trump is old. Hey, if they could spend all their time talking about how old Biden is, we can turn it around on them now and point out that he is the oldest person ever to run for President.
Everyone hates Project 2025. Republicans can’t run away from it. The more people learn about it, the more they hate it. Democrats are going to constantly remind everyone of what it is and how it is essentially the GOP Platform.
Democrats have done better than expected in recent elections.We’ve managed to win quite a few special elections and in those that we didn’t win (in very red areas) we did much better than expected and much better than the polls predicted. Some of that is because we’re angry and pissed, and that gets people to the polls.
And we’re tremendously angry about abortion rights. In red states where this was on the ballot, pundits were shocked to see that even conservative voters voted to keep abortion legal. Many states are putting the issue on the ballots in November, which hopefully will bring more Democrats out to vote to protect this right (and then they’ll vote for the Democrats running as well.)
And, let’s face it, there are still some reasonable Republicans and moderates out there who may come out to vote because while they don’t agree with Democratic policies, they don’t want someone in there who has vowed to be a “dictator on day one.” Some patriots will put the country’s needs over the party’s.
Harris is exciting younger and newer voters. Her poll numbers among the young are excellent and way beyond Trump’s. Harris is energizing younger voters in a way Biden couldn’t, and these voters don’t answer polls so they’re not always counted. (Polls still rely heavily on landline phones — which may also be why we have done better than expected in recent elections). Their presence along with people who want to vote for the first woman President may make all the difference. (Keep in mind many Republican women won’t tell others that they’re voting for her, but in the privacy of the voting booth…)
All we have to do is hold the states we won last time. All over the country, purple states are becoming bluer all the time. It’s not that hard. We can lose Georgia, Arizona and Nevada and still win. I am hoping Harris will chose Governor Shapiro as her running mate, as that should help secure Pennsylvania, a state we have to win. (Seriously, without purple Pennsylvania, there’s no way a Democrat can win.)
There are more of us than there are of them. Democrats have won the popular vote in every single election except one since Bill Clinton, and the only reason Republicans got into office was because of the electoral college. We can overcome that by showing up in huge numbers in the swing states where our votes are tremendously important, like we did when Obama was elected. A huge turnout will guarantee our victory.
If we lose, it will be because we stayed at home and didn’t vote, or wasted our vote on a third party candidate. And then we can scream and shout all we want as our country moves toward a Putin-friendly dictatorship, but it won’t do any good because it will be our fault.
And now, a caveat: The GOP knows all this, so they plan to use their secret weapon: cheating. They’ll do everything they can to make it harder for anyone to vote; they’ll use the judges they’ve appointed to throw out ballots whenever possible; they’ll lie in campaign ads and use connections in Russia and China whose goal it is to dismantle American power; and otherwise claim to have won if they lose despite all evidence to the contrary (just like they did last time).
ventrellaquest.com 