Bernie Sanders

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It’s all over! Hillary is ahead in the polls!

Hillary currently has 48% nationally and Sanders has 25%! Might as well name her as the Democratic nominee now and save us all some time! Or so the articles on the major news sites seem to say.

This, of course, ignores a few major things:1841148_orig

First, according to most polls, Sanders is ahead in New Hampshire — a very important state since it holds the first primary. A win there can change the landscape tremendously, as we have seen in previous elections.

Second, it’s 2015! There’s not even a primary for months.

Let’s look back at the last time Hillary ran. On October 20, 2007, she was at 47.5% in the polls. Way, way behind was this upstart Barack Obama guy, with only 21.7%. What a loser! That’s even lower than where Bernie Sanders is now!

A month is a lifetime in politics. Polls can change and waver hugely within a week.

So maybe we should stop declaring winners and losers before a single vote has been cast.

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Nobody Won the Democratic Debate

The media loves a winner, and after the Democratic debate, pundits leaped over each other to declare their choices for who “won” the debate. Most, unsurprisingly, chose Clinton, because that’s what everyone expected.

But I say no one won.

Debates aren’t elections. They’re not sporting events. In some ways, the candidates aren’t competing against each other but instead are using the debate to promote themselves in a forum that allows voters to compare. democratic-candidates-debate-cnn

You “win” the debate by outperforming expectations. You “lose” by making mistakes or coming across as unlikable and untrustworthy.

I still remember Gerald Ford in a debate with Jimmy Carter claiming that there was no Soviet presence in Poland. (Hint: there was.) The press and the Democrats pounded on him for being ill-informed and he just sunk lower in the polls. George Bush looked at his watch during a debate with Bill Clinton, as if to say he was bored and this wasn’t really important to him, and that allowed the press to label him as aloof and uncaring. Al Gore’s sighs during his debate with George W. Bush made him look arrogant instead of making Bush look stupid and that didn’t help his campaign (even though he was right about Bush saying idiotic things that deserved sighs).

No one made those kinds of errors last night, although there were some comments that didn’t stand up to scrutiny when fact-checked (although nothing like the kind of lying and outright dishonesty we have seen during the Republican debates).

Hillary “won” yesterday’s debate in that she answered the questions, seemed knowledgeable, and didn’t make any mistakes. But the bar was low for her — she is a good debater, she’s been doing it for years, and she’s always well prepared. We knew what to expect from her, and she met expectations, so pundits claimed her the winner.

Bernie Sanders, however, had everything to gain. Most people knew very little about him. He didn’t make any mistakes, and he pounded his issue concerning income equality, which is a winning topic that any Democrat should push. At the same time, he gave the GOP a lot of clips they can use against him in a general election to portray him as a crazy socialist who hates capitalism, so that doesn’t really help (although in this election year, being “anti-capitalism” may help bring in more young voters).

Lincoln Chafee, Martin O’Malley, and Jim Webb merely had to show to their supporters that they were viable candidates, and of the three, O’Malley came out the best. Webb just seemed angry and many of his positions are just too moderate for the kind of Democratic activists who get involved in elections this early. Chafee had lame excuses for much of his previous votes, and really doesn’t have a chance. These three are probably just jockeying for a Vice Presidential nod.

Based on most unscientific polling, voters said Bernie Sanders won, and if you look at the fact that he took in another $2 million in donations within 24 hours of the debate, I’d say that makes it easier to say he “won” by the standards I set. He outperformed expectations. Again.

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Top Ten Surprises in the Democratic Debate

10. Sanders, confident of victory or wishing to appeal to the youth vote, lights up a blunt while Hillary is talking

9. Webb arrives wearing a Spider-Man costume, thinking it will help people remember his name

8. Hillary’s face falls off, revealing intricate clockwork mechanismDEBATE

7. Chafee admits that if this doesn’t work, he’ll see which other political parties might accept him

6. Biden strides on stage mid-debate carrying a beer, slaps everyone on the back, and screams “Where’s the party?”

5. Webb and Hillary go mano a mano after a particularly nasty discussion of trade agreements; Webb carried out by EMTs during commercial break

4. O’Malley pretends to be from Massachusetts, then Nevada; finally breaks down crying upon admitting he’s from Maryland

3. Bill Clinton kicked out of the audience when close-up camera reveals him giving Hillary secret messages via his phone; turns out he was playing ‘Angry Birds’

2. Sanders announces his running mates, Ben & Jerry

1. Trump, jealous of all the attention, storms the stage and calls everyone ‘losers’

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The Bernie Trump Factor

Back when the Tea Party began, I was thrilled. It was around the same time as Occupy Wall Street began, and at their roots, both groups wanted the same thing: Stop letting the Big Banks and Big Business do anything they want! No bailouts for businesses that screwed over the average guy! Let’s give government back to the people!sanders and trump

Finally! Consensus! Something might actually get done!

We all know how well that worked out. The Tea Party got co-opted by every right-wing issue out there (gun rights, abortion, religious extremism), none of which had anything to do with the real issue for which the Tea Party was formed. And the Occupy Wall Street became this generation’s hippie fest, with drumming and tie-dye and demands that we stop eating animals.

It’s almost as if the rich bankers and corporations that actually run this country had planned it that way. Hmmm.

But the underlying anger hasn’t gone away, and it manifests itself now in the “Bernie Trump Factor.”

When you speak to supporters of both Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump, they say a lot of the same things about how terrible it is that government can be bought by the highest bidder. Both discuss how they “can’t be bought”.

Supporters for both exclaim, “He tells the truth!” — because neither Trump nor Sanders take public opinion polls or surveys to decide what their position on the issues should be.

And this rebellion on both sides is a good thing. It is indeed time that something is done about our country’s descent into oligarchy.

Of course, that’s about all these two have in common — on every other issue, they’re polar opposites. But the Bernie Trump Factor is the reason you have people on the left and people on the right jumping for joy for the outsider, the guy no one expected to do well.

We’re mad as hell and we’re not going to take it any more.

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Bernie Sanders is not “The One”

And neither was Barack Obama.

Many of my liberal friends seem to be falling into two categories:  Either Bernie Sanders is the savior we’ve all been waiting for, or he’s a fraud and real liberals should be supporting the Green Party candidate instead.*

The answer is between the two extremes.

Nobody is perfect. There’s plenty of stuff about Obama I disagreed with when he was running (and through his Presidency). But he was clearly the better choice of those who had the possibility of winning the election.

If you refuse to support the best candidate who can win because they are not pure enough, you’re going to end up disappointed a lot.

As I’ve said here many times, politics is the art of compromise. I’d rather compromise and get 50% of what I want than be stubborn and get 0%. If you don’t understand that, you will lose. Over and over again.

This is the main problem with the Tea Party extremists on the right — they cannot understand that reasonable people can differ with them, and as a result, our government gets very little done these days because they hold their breath until they turn blue instead of working to accomplish some of their goals. They may win the lower races, but they’re never going to win the Presidency.

The left’s version of the Tea Party is not much better. They demand purity, and thus throw their vote toward Ralph Nader or some other third party, which only helps those on the right win elections.

Some people are just blind followers. Their candidate (or religious leader or political viewpoint or favorite band or preferred sports team…) is perfect, and anyone who doesn’t see that is just plain wrong and must be insulted. It’s impossible to discuss the good and bad points with these people.

 

*Then there are my liberal friends who are supporting Hillary Clinton, but the attitude I get from them is more of a resigned “Well, I think she can win” vibe;  I don’t sense a lot of enthusiasm there.

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Being right doesn’t excuse your rudeness

A couple of activists from a “Black Lives Matter” group interrupted Bernie Sanders’ speech the other day and quite a few people are mad about it. The primary “Black Lives Matter” group has disavowed the people who did this, and others say that this has hurt their message.

Well, I don’t know about that. I support their cause and still think their message is important. What I disagree with are their methods.

But now there are those on the left who are complaining about those of us complaining. We’re being called racists because we think these protesters shouldn’t have done that. How ridiculous.

Calling out people who disrupt speeches (or gallery openings, or live TV shows, or plays, or anything else where they are not invited) doesn’t mean I disagree with their position. It doesn’t mean I am demeaning them. It doesn’t mean I am a racist.

It means I’m calling them out for their rudeness and inconsideration.

I came to hear someone give a speech, and it wasn’t you. Go away.

If I go to see a concert by a band I like, I’m not going to be happy if another band takes over the stage by force to perform their songs instead, even if I like that other band.

The same applies to anyone who interrupts Republican speakers. It applies to Westboro Baptist Church making noises to interrupt funerals and it applies to liberals who go to Congressional hearings and shout at the Congress members.

Yeah, sure, there is a place for protests in America. And sometimes those rallies have to be a bit rude. So go ahead, have a loud rally. Give a speech. Have a sit-in. You have that right. But don’t come to my event and take it over for your own purpose. Have your own damn event. (I feel the same way about people who come onto my Facebook page uninvited and decide to use it to spam my friends with their own political propaganda.)

These people had a right to interrupt Sanders’ rally. That’s how rights work. And I have the right to say that they were rude, inconsiderate, and didn’t help their cause one bit.

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Will 2016 be a repeat of 2008?

In 2007, a year or so before the primaries of 2008 began, this was what people were saying:Bernie-Sanders-and-Obama

  • Hillary is unbeatable
  • America is not ready to elect a black man
  • Obama is too far to the left to ever win the nomination, much less the election
  • Hillary has too many endorsements and too much money for anyone to challenge her successfully

I kind of agreed, even though I supported Obama from the start. And I was pleased to have been proven wrong.

Now here it is, a year or so before the primaries of 2016, and this is what people are saying:

  • Hillary is unbeatable
  • America is not ready to elect a Jewish man
  • Sanders is too far to the left to ever win the nomination, much less the election
  • Hillary has too many endorsements and too much money for anyone to challenge her successfully

I kind of agree.

But boy, would it be great to be proven wrong again.

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Bernie Sanders for President?

Avowed socialist Bernie Sanders has announced that he is running for President.

He doesn’t have a chance of winning. He will only raise a fraction of what Hillary already has in her war chest. He doesn’t look like a President and that New York Jewish agitator vibe won’t help him in the slightest with most of the country. Bernie_Sanders

Let’s face it — the votes are in the middle. 40% on the right will never vote for a Democrat and 40% on the left will never vote for a Republican. It’s the 20% in the middle who decide elections.

So why is he doing this?

To bring up the issues Hillary is trying to ignore. To make income equality a centerpiece of the campaign. To talk about the failed war on drugs and our overcrowded prisons and the need for a single-payer health care system. To get rid of Citizen’s United and have campaign finance reform. To make sure the Democrats actually stand for something other than just getting elected.

And you know what? Despite what some Hillary supporters are worried about, this should help Democrats win. These issues are not radical left-wing crazy ideas. Poll after poll show that these are mainstream views, shared by a majority of Americans. These are the issues that the moderates like.

We don’t need to appeal to those hard-core Democrats who are excited to elect the first woman President. We don’t need to appeal to the political junkies on the left (like me) who will always come out and vote no matter what. We need to excite the people in the middle who would just as soon stay at home than get out and vote. We need to give them a reason to want to vote.

Playing it “safe” and ignoring these issues breeds apathy. There are more Democrats than there are Republicans and when we lose, it’s not because the Republican positions are more liked by the population; it’s because we don’t vote.

So give Democrats a reason to vote. Get them excited.

That’s where Bernie might make a difference, because while many of us will shrug, yawn, and vote for Hillary simply because she’d be better than the alternative, there are a lot more people in the middle who will shrug, yawn, and just stay home.

And then we lose.

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Bernie Sanders for President?

A while ago, I worried that Senator Bernie Sander’s eye on the Presidency would ruin the Democrats’ chances in 2016.  We don’t need another Ralph Nader-like spoiler.Bernie_Sanders

But he’s said recently that he would never run as an independent, which calms me greatly.  He would use the race as a way to make sure the issues he cares about are discussed, and there’s nothing wrong with that.

I think his presence in the Presidential race as a Democrat would be beneficial.  He won’t win, of course, but he certainly could make sure that the party follows a more populist (and winning) message, rather than looking like just another traditional status quo race.  (OK, yes, Hillary breaks the mold by being a female candidate, but her views are pretty moderate and traditional.)

 

 

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Bernie Sanders: The new Ralph Nader?

I agree with Bernie Sanders on almost every issue, and think it would be amazing if he were President.  It will never happen though, and I’m not naive enough to think that it could.   Bernie_Sanders

That doesn’t mean I would object to him running in the primaries.  He could move the Democrats to the left and prove that it is possible to do so without alienating voters.  While it is true that “the votes are in the middle” and if you run a candidate too far to the left or right you will lose the election, the problem is that politicians are wrong about where the “middle” is.  They think it is far more conservative than it is in reality.

A majority of Americans support Obamacare.  A majority thinks gay marriage, abortion and marijuana should be legal.  A majority supports more gun control.  A majority want to raise the minimum wage and do something about campaign finance reform.  A majority wants to raise taxes on the wealthy and do not believe that “corporations are people.”

These positions are not radical dreams of the left.  They are mainstream.  For Democrats to shy away from what a majority of Americans want is ridiculous.  Having Senator Sanders in the race might help toughen up the other candidates and bring them away from the center-right and perhaps lure them to the center-left.

The problem is this:  For all Sanders has said about wanting to enter the race, I am waiting to hear that he will be running as a Democrat.  Because he isn’t one.  He’s an Independent Socialist who caucuses with the Democrats.

If there’s one thing we definitely don’t need, it’s another spoiler who will siphon off votes from Democrats and allow a Republican to win the Presidency in 2016.

So here’s hoping his plan is to enter the Democratic primaries and not run as an Independent.  Otherwise, we could end up with President Ted Cruz.