Donald Trump

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Highlights from the 3rd Day of the Republican Convention

Get out the popcorn. This just keeps getting better. Let’s look at the third day of the GOP Hatefest. I swear, if I were writing a satire of the extremism of the party, it would be less ridiculous than this.

Republicans spent much of their time seriously debating Hillary Clinton, with the two options being “Should we jail her, or just kill her?” ingraham21n-1-web

Apologists for Melania Trump’s stolen speech continued to ignore the obvious theft, with one Brony even arguing with a straight face that since a character on My Little Pony has said similar things, then clearly there was nothing wrong with plagiarism.  But hey, you have to admit that Melania’s speech certainly made her sound like a First Lady — That First Lady being  Michelle Obama.

Trump, whose catch-phrase is “You’re fired,” did not fire Meredith McIver, the woman who wrote Melania’s speech. What is interesting though is that the writer works for Trump in his business, meaning that it is illegal for him to be paying her with his business’ money to to work for the campaign. But is anyone surprised at that? What makes this story even better is that some media outlets are claiming that Meredith McIver is not a real person but another alias Trump uses, like “John Miller.”

Ted Cruz got most of the attention last night when he spoke and refused to endorse Trump, telling people instead to “vote their conscience.” Who would have thought that the tons of insults Trump threw at Cruz during the primaries would cause Cruz to think that maybe this guy wasn’t fit to be President?

Apparently Ted, unlike Chris Christie, survived the primary season with his balls intact. Christie, meanwhile, is having a fit over the fact that he wasn’t picked for Vice President. (Insert Nelson laugh)

But my favorite part of the convention was when right-wing nutcase Laura Ingraham ended her speech with the nazi salute. Seriously, this actually happened.  “Have you seen my friend Kyle? He’s about this tall. We need to seek Kyle. Seek Kyle!  Seek Kyle!”

 

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Highlights from the 2nd Day of the Republican Convention

Highlights from day two of the Republican convention:

Republicans one by one helped keep the Melania plagiarism scandal afloat by insisting that it never happened instead of taking responsibility and moving on. That’s the current Republican way of dealing with things, of course — deny facts over and over again and hope people don’t notice. The press certainly did, with Chuck Todd being amazed at how incompetent the Trump campaign was at handling this.trump

The band Third Eye Blind trolled the GOP by accepting an invitation to play at some party and then refusing to play any of their hits — except the one about the gay kid who commits suicide because he’s bullied. They then ended their set with a plea for acceptance which, of course, was met with boos from the bigots in the audience. When one fan there tweeted that she had never been so disappointed, the band tweeted back “Good.”

The Republican platform is being celebrated, and it includes a passage that calls for the reversal of environmental standards, and calls coal a “clean” energy. Coming soon from the GOP:  War is peace, freedom is slavery, and ignorance is strength.

At the actual convention, speakers spent most of their time trying to paint Hillary as the most evil person in the world because, hey, the alternative would be trying to come up with something nice to say about Trump.

Chris Christie claimed that Hillary helped Boko Haram kidnap girls because you know, anything that happens in other parts of the world while a Democrat is President is entirely their fault, as opposed to say when the largest attack in history to happen on American soil occurs in the middle of New York City — that’s totally not the fault of Republicans in charge.

Trump’s top adviser for veteran’s affairs called for Hillary Clinton to be executed for treason, and of course, the GOP cheered him on.

The RNC co-chair got up and called President Bill Clinton a rapist. Yeah, good, set the standard for class, people.

Donald Trump Jr. then rattled off a bunch of lies which everyone cheered, the strangest of which was that Hillary Clinton wanted to get rid of medicare. The Washington Post fact-checker politely reported that this “appears to have no factual basis” — which is a nice way of saying “liar, liar, pants on fire.”

Seriously, which party has spent 50 years trying to get rid of medicare?  Let’s see, was it the Greens?  No… I’m sure it will come to me.

 

 

 

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Electoral college predictions and voodoo

Predicting who will win the election based on the Electoral College is a bit like predicting who will win the Super Bowl six months prior — there is a bit of guesswork involved because things could change dramatically by the final day, but, at the same time, there are statistics you can use to make your prediction as accurate as possible. Depending on the source, a prediction may be as scientifically perfect as possible or it may be complete voodoo.

I hate the Electoral College, but we’re stuck with it. That’s how we pick Presidents. Suck it up and deal. Let’s move on.

In previous years, I enjoyed using Electoral-Vote.com that takes the map and updates it daily based on the most recent polls. The problem with that approach is that it treats each poll separately, and sometimes they may vary wildly.

More accurate this year is Nate Silver’s 538 map. This website is run by a bunch of math nerds. They don’t just take the most recent poll; they take them all and average them together based on a number of factors including the previous accuracy of that particular pollster, whether it was a poll of all voters or likely voters, how old the poll is, and a bunch of other things I don’t completely understand because math.

According to Silver, Hillary has around an 80% chance of winning the election, which isn’t completely surprising. The problem is that this election has already broken all the rules. Silver had also predicted in the past (like every other “expert”*) that Trump would never be the nominee.


This map is from 270toWin.com and matches Nate Silver’s current prediction

Seriously, Trump’s campaign is a classic example of what not do to in a campaign. The whole thing has gone against everything I ever learned as a Political Science major, a campaign manager, a lobbyist, and a campaign worker. It goes against everything I ever taught when I was a Political Science professor. He’s done everything wrong.

Of course, that could also be why he’s only given a 20% chance of winning.

But hey, the conventions haven’t even happened yet. For all we know, the GOP will find a way to nominate someone else and then we’re back to square one. Hillary, after all, is popular only in relation to Trump. If they nominate someone else, that 80% chance of winning would drop quickly.

*including me

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We choose the lesser of two evils every day

Life is full of tough choices.  Deal with it.

As I encourage my fellow Democrats to support Hillary over Trump, I constantly get people who point out Hillary’s faults (which I acknowledge many of) and profoundly say, like they’re reading a fortune cookie, “The lesser of two evils is still evil.”*donald-trump-h-1024

Most insulting is when the Bernie Bots say these things to me as if I am just too stupid to understand. Yeah, the old “wake up, sheeple” really helps to convince me. The decades I have spent getting my Political Science and law degrees, working as a lobbyist, college professor, campaign manager and lawyer, getting elected as a Judge of Elections, writing about politics, and being an officer in the Democratic party means nothing — the teenager who will be voting for the first time understands the system way more than me.

This is not to say you can’t have a different opinion about things, but please don’t lecture me about how politics works when you believe the superdelegate process is “illegal.”

Look, I supported Bernie too, as anyone who has read this blog knows. But he lost. Now we have a choice between someone who isn’t perfect and someone who is the most unqualified and dangerous person to ever win a major party nomination.

Two evils? Perhaps. Two equal evils? Not even close.

We have to make tough choices every day in life. We don’t always get what we want. Part of being mature is recognizing this. You don’t give up striving for a the best, but you also don’t refuse to take second best when that’s your best option.

I only wish someone had said that to me when I was young, because I was a lot like these Bernie supporters at that age.

*in bed

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Why the primary rules won’t change (and may get more restrictive)

Imagine you have a club.  The Star Trek fan club. You’ve been around for fifty years or so and have been fairly successful.

It’s time for your club to elect a new leader. Suddenly, a new member joins and says, “I want to be your group’s leader, but I really think we should be talking about Star Wars, too.”

“Well, that’s fine,” you say. “Welcome. We can do that, too…”

The new member then brings in a whole bunch of other new members, all of whom prefer Star Wars over Star Trek, but they discover that the rules concerning electing a new leader are quite complicated. Further, they discover that the other person running for leader has been a member of the organization for years and has lots of supporters within the organization, almost all of whom have pledged to support her.

“That’s not fair!” the new guy says. “You should change the rules to prevent that.”

“Well, we have a process for changing the rules,” you say. “It takes some time. If you had joined a few years ago, you could have asked to be on the committee — ”

“That’s illegal!” the new guy says.

Well, no, it’s not. It’s how the private organization runs things. They could, if they wish, prevent new members from voting or get rid of voting completely.

And that’s why you’re not going to see many changes in the way the parties choose their candidates. They’re specifically written by the party to prevent what has happened with both Bernie and Trump — where an outsider comes in and tries to take things over.

The Republicans wish they had superdelegates and other methods that could have prevented Trump from hijacking their party. You can bet that once they lose in November, they will have meetings to discuss how to make getting the party’s nomination more difficult.

The Democrats are not in such a precarious position (since both Bernie and Hillary are generally well-liked among party leaders and, unlike Trump, both are qualified), but the complaints from the Bernie people still resonate among some members.

The problem is that many of Bernie people* don’t get what this is all about. They complain about Hillary courting superdelegates and getting supporters to encourage him to drop out — basically, they’re saying “How dare Hillary use politics to advance her political career!”

Well, this is politics. The fact that she has played it better than Bernie doesn’t mean she has done anything wrong. Let’s face it, gathering supporters around you and making deals is what being a leader is all about. It’s how politicians accomplish their goals and get bills passed. It’s not a bad thing to be able to do this well.

Anyway, don’t expect the rules to become more inclusive over time. If anything, this election has shown the party leaders that they have to make the game more difficult, to prevent outsiders from coming in and taking over.

Whether that is a good thing or not is a discussion for another day.

*Before you criticize me, keep in mind that I am a Bernie supporter. There are valid things to criticize Hillary over. Playing the game by the rules as they currently exist is not a “valid thing”.

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Trump Getting Desperate

“Jesus Christ, what do I have to say before you guys stop supporting me?” Trump asked at a rally recently.

“I’ve said before that I could shoot someone and you’d still vote for me but I was exaggerating — but now I think it’s true,” He said as he mopped his brow and cursed softly under his breath.

“I mean, come on — I’ve called for people to be beaten up at my rallies, said that women who have abortions should be jailed, made fun of a reporter’s handicap, called Mexican immigrants rapists, and said racist things about the President. My campaign manager beats up women and sadtrumpI support him, and I’ve been endorsed by the KKK. What more can I do?

“And policy positions? I made huge promises without once saying how I would accomplish anything. I’ve practically admitted I know nothing about foreign policy.

“And you Bible thumpers out there still support me, even after I misquote your holy book and can’t name a single part of it? Jesus, I’d think you’d hate me already for my adultery and many wives. I mean, isn’t that one of your top ten sins or something?”

Trump bowed his head and seemed to be holding back tears. “For fuck’s sake, I never wanted to be President,” he mumbled. “I just wanted some attention.”

The crowd waved its confederate flags and cheered, once more ignoring everything he said.

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I hereby endorse Trump for the Republican nomination

I, Michael A. Ventrella, being of sound mind and sound body, hereby endorse Trump for the Republican nomination. I urge all my Republican friends to vote for Trump.

Here’s why:trump

1.  If elected, he will be one of the least effective Presidents. Both Democrats and Republicans will refuse to work with him.

2.  He’s better than Cruz. I mean, seriously, everyone hates Cruz but what makes Cruz scarier is that he could possibly accomplish some of his evil plan.

3.  Trump really doesn’t stand for anything other than Trump. He has held liberal views in the past and is holding conservative ones now because it gets him attention. I’d rather have that than a religious crusader like Cruz who thinks he’s doing God’s will. Trump just thinks he’s God.

4.  If Trump is the nominee, every poll shows that the Democrats are a shoo-in. He’s the most popular among the extremists in the Republican party and of all the possible GOP candidates does the worst in a head-to-head match-up with either Bernie or Hillary. (Bernie does better against him in case you’re wondering.)

5.  With Trump as the candidate, the Democrat’s chances rise for taking back not only the Senate but also the House.

So here’s to Trump: Long may he continue to destroy the Republican party.

 

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An alternate scenario for November

by Guest Blogger David Gerrold

So, here’s an alternate scenario for November.

Let’s look at the numbers.

Donald Trump does not break 40% in his primary victories. That’s not 40% of the electorate — it’s 40% of the republican voters. That’s the fanatics, the whackadoodles, and the energized rednecks. It’s the ignorati — the ones who hold up signs saying, “Keep your govt hands off my medicare.”Keep-Your-Government-Hands-Off-My-Medicare

Let’s assume he gets the republican nomination. Despite all the machinations of the party, lets assume he shows up at the convention with 1237 pledged delegates. The convention turns into a massive floor fight. The convention is supposed to be that moment when the party unifies — but not this time.

Or, let’s say he shows up with 1236 pledged delegates and loses the first nominating ballot. The convention turns into a massive floor fight and possibly a riot. There will be protesters and demonstrators outside the convention hall. There will be a lot of tension. Things will get ugly.

Either way, the convention becomes an embarrassment and the party adjourns in greater disunity than ever before.

(By the way, Trump broke the law when he promised Carson a cabinet post for his endorsement. Will there be an indictment? Or will this be conveniently forgotten?)

The key point here is that the republican convention will not unify around Trump — and if anyone else gets handed the nomination, he will not be able to unify the party either, because the Trump supporters will be so angry, they’ll quit or walk away or try to mount a third party effort.

If Trump does get the nomination, the idea that the republican party will try to mount a third party effort against him, so as to throw the election into the house of representatives is a fascinating scenario, but don’t hold your breath. Organizing that would be a monstrous problem.

So … it’s either Trump or Cruz or Romney or who the hell knows, trying to unify a party that has been trumpripped apart by evangelicals, tea partiers, Trump supporters, and what remains of a tattered establishment.

If it’s Trump — and I suspect it will be Trump — if he’s only pulling 40% of the republican vote now, how will he do in the general election? (Or substitute Cruz, who does even worse.) Not well.

This fracturing of the republican party means that many republicans will stay home in disgust, feeling that there’s no one to vote for.

It also means that many republican women — even those who hate Hillary Clinton — will end up voting against their own party’s candidate. (This is not wishful thinking on my part. This was a real phenomenon in 2008 and 2012. It will be even more so in 2016.)

I don’t think the remaining primaries are going to be easy on Hillary — but, the prolonged primary season of 2008 was good for both Hillary and Barack Obama, because it gave them both good practice. It hardened Obama for the campaign ahead. This year, Hillary and Bernie are both being tempered (strengthened) by the forges of the primary battle.

But this is the point — the democrats, for all their various faults (all of which the concern trolls will be quick to list) have learned how to organize, have learned how to unify, and have demonstrated that they have learned the importance of a well-planned ground game.

The democratic convention of 2016 will be as well-constructed a show as it is possible for them to create — it should be at least as good as the 2008 convention.

So, post-convention, the republicans will see a slump in their numbers. Post-convention, the democrats will see a bump. This should result in adding 5% to the lead of the democratic nominee.

If Trump is the candidate, he will attempt to bully the democrats. It won’t work. The debates will be fascinating. Either Hillary or Bernie will demonstrate just how little Trump actually knows about anything.

If Cruz is the candidate, he’ll have to run on what a terrible job President Obama has done. This will give the democratic candidate the opportunity to point out that DESPITE REPUBLICAN OBSTRUCTIONISM, including Cruz’s own effort to shut down the government, President Obama has still managed to cut the deficit and get the economy back on track.

If Cruz or Trump attempt to denigrate Obama’s record, it’s the perfect opportunity for Clinton or Sanders to list the successes of this president and promise to build on those successes. It’s a bear trap for the republicans.

And … President Obama has made it clear he intends to lend his support to the democratic nominee. If it’s Hillary, she’ll have the President, she’ll have Michelle, she’ll have Bill, all campaigning for her. She’ll have three of the most popular democrats working to energize the base and get out the vote. A lot of other high-profile democrats will be given their moment in the spotlight too.

And if it’s Hillary, expect there to be an evening for Bernie Sanders to speak to his supporters and explain that even if they haven’t won the nomination, they have won a very big victory — they will have been able to force more progressive issues into the party platform, they will have moved not just Hillary Clinton, but the whole party in the right direction — and that it’s time to keep pushing in that direction because every step in the right direction, even a few small ones, is a good thing.

If it’s Bernie — well, the convention will be an old-fashioned revival meeting that leaves people breathless and inspired — and Bernie will pull a lot of Trump’s voters away from him.

Now this might all be wishful thinking on my part — but it’s based on two things.

Every time I’ve said the republicans can’t be that stupid, I’ve been wrong. So this time, I’m predicting they will be that stupid.

Every time I’ve said that the democrats have a pretty good idea on how to win the election, I’ve been right. So … I’ll stick with that.

The one thing that is every bit as critical as the presidential election is the downticket races. This is one area that the dems have not mastered as well as the republicans. But this year, with the republican ground game possibly in tatters, who knows?

We shall see.

 

Nebula and Hugo award winning author David Gerrold is the author of over 50 books, several hundred articles and columns, and over a dozen television episodes. TV credits include episodes of Star Trek, Babylon 5, Twilight Zone, Land Of The Lost, Logan’s Run, and many others. Novels include WHEN HARLIE WAS ONE, THE MAN WHO FOLDED HIMSELF, the “War Against the Chtorr” septology, The “Star Wolf” trilogy, The “Dingilliad” young adult trilogy, and more. The autobiographical tale of his son’s adoption, THE MARTIAN CHILD won the Hugo and Nebula awards for Best Novelette of the Year and was the basis for the 2007 movie starring John Cusack, Amanda Peet, and Joan Cusack. His web page is here.

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Political Scientists: “We don’t know nothin'”

Sanders and Trump have taken New Hampshire, which just goes to prove that Political Science is to science what military music is to music. bernturmp

I graduated cum laude with my Political Science degree. I worked on many campaigns (including being a campaign manager for a state representative), was a lobbyist for a while, taught political science, and continue to follow politics while blogging about it. And, like my fellow political scientists, I didn’t see this coming.

I’m not talking about predicting this a month ago. I mean a year ago — when Trump and Sanders started talking about running. Like all the other pundits that cover politics, I thought that these anti-establishment fringe candidates would fade by the time the primary season started.

Here’s what I wrote about Bernie last April:

He doesn’t have a chance of winning. He will only raise a fraction of what Hillary already has in her war chest. He doesn’t look like a President and that New York Jewish agitator vibe won’t help him in the slightest with most of the country. 

And that’s what most other commentators thought, as well. We then said similar things about Trump.

But the world has changed since we studied Poli Sci in college, and in two major ways.

First, Americans are sick and tired of politicians. We’re ready for an outsider — someone who doesn’t base his views on opinion polls and is not afraid to say what we’re thinking but have been told we’re not supposed to. For Democrats, that means talking about income equality, socialism, and social justice. For Republicans, that means embracing racism, sexism, xenophobia, and a mistrust of anyone not rich, white, and male (apparently).

But more importantly, the second factor is the internet, which has changed the way the game is played. The internet is a model of democracy — anyone can start a blog (like me!), spout an opinion, and share an article. Information no longer comes down to us from the gatekeepers — it moves up, often through “viral” posts. The mainstream media, instead of leading public opinion, is often scrambling to catch up.

This is not necessarily a good thing. So much misinformation gets passed around as fact. “I read it on the internet so it must be true” posts skew reality, and people end up believing the most amazing things. And then when the media whose job it is to report  the truth tells you that what you read on the internet is false, people instead disbelieve the media and embrace the comforting lie.

And that has helped Trump.

But the internet has also helped Bernie. He has been able to bypass the normal channels politicians usually follow, get his message out cheaply and easily, and raise lots of money without having to plead with the big donors and corporations that usually finance campaigns.

So this is a fascinating year.

And if anyone tells you that they know what’s going to happen, just remember: Nobody knows nothin’.